I assume this is not news to anyone that the “Dear Leader” of North Korea and puppet star of Team America Kim Jong Il is dead. If that isn’t a reason to drink champagne, then I don’t know what is. Seriously, that guy sucked at life. I look forward to Kim Jr. and his military cabinet making a wrong move so the international community can give the thumbs up to us nuking them off the planet.
The Super Mario bonus points of this situation is that now rumors are surfacing indicating the circumstances surrounding Kim Jong Il’s passing were a tad “massaged” by the North Korea propaganda machine. You see, dying on a train doing leader-y stuff is a good way to say that Kim was a man of the people until the very end. Whereas being choked to death by a concubine because she didn’t adequately understand the safety word could possibly be frowned upon by one’s adoring public.
Okay, I made that death up. Funny nonetheless.
America finds herself once again in a state of political deadlock. Payroll tax cut extension this time. Senate passed it. House didn’t like it, so they kicked it back. Senate adjourned for Christmas in the meantime. One crux of the argument is centered around the so-called “Millionaire Tax”, which is clearly a liberal attempt to empty Scrooge McDuck’s money bin for their eeeeeeeevil liberal agendas. Agendas like replicating Ellen Degeneres into a gigantic clone army and taking over Tatooine.
These “it’s funny because it’s hyperbolic” DuckTales/Star Wars references doing anything for ya? Appeals to a narrow demographic of nerd, I tell ya. And I guess they technically took over Hoth...
Europe keeps making deals to stave off its sovereign debt crisis and the markets say “Yaaaaaaaay!!!” Then the markets sleep on it, wake up at 3:30 am in a cold sweat and say “OH SWEET GOD NO” because yesterday’s deals were evidently not quite deal-tastic enough. And then all hell breaks loose once again the following morning.
Lather, rinse, repeat. For like a couple months running now. It’s right up there with watching your never-hugged-enough-as-a-kid cousin go in and out of bad relationships. So easily pgredictable that you stop genuinely caring. This is what has been dictating the tide on international economics.
On the bright side, we won the Iraq War. Until we find a new reason to declare war on them. Based on my life’s frame of reference, it’s a pretty regular thing. Nah, in all fairness Obama didn't declare some sort of arbitrary victory. So we didn’t WIN persay, we’re just not fighting anymore.
Saudi Prince Alaweed recently invested $300 million in Twitter. He promptly followed the major bet by tweeting “omg totes just dropped mad coin on Twitter lol #ChristmasPresentForMe”
Bank of America continues to regret its gobbling of Countrywide. They recently paid a $335,000,000 settlement over violations of fair lending practices. Evidently they engaged in routine discrimination of 200,000 black and Hispanic borrowers through higher rates, outright denial or pushing them into needlessly expensive sub-prime products. My former competition knows how to keep it classy.
The National Association of Realtors released information stating that home sales from 2007-2011 were on average revised downward 14.3% from their original releases. This came after they saw their numbers were deviating from other national metrics. Now, while this isn’t ideal, it doesn’t change a damn thing that’s happening right now at the ground floor. It may have an effect on public perception of housing going forward, though. And as we all know, perception is reality. All that being said, November existing home sales came in at an unseasonably strong +4.0%.
Well my faithful and beautiful readers, here we are at the end of 2011. T’was an interesting year. I hope I have provided you a chuckle or two via my ADD and politically-incorrect ramblings over the past 12 months. Goodness knows I tried. And you guys and gals have come through for me with your support and referrals, making this one of my best years to date. I appreciate that greatly. My best to you and your own.
I love you. I love you so much.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Epic Fail: A Bi-Partisan American Story
This ongoing debt crisis continues to act like an A.D.D. glutton at Golden Corral, gobbling up market-share seemingly at random and in large quantities. Our super-committee (or “not-so-super committee” as I call them) has proven to be as petty as the broader parties they represent, gnashing their teeth at one another while accomplishing nothing. Their original purpose was to help close the Grand Canyon-esque U.S. budget deficit by at least 1.2 trillion over the next decade.
Well, that didn’t happen. Today is their official deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did some sort of kick-the-can-down-the-road move to try and save their political lives. Unfortunately, such actions may not be very warmly received by the ratings agencies, threatening yet another eventual U.S. debt downgrade despite recent reaffirmations of their latest AAA (or in S&P’s case AA+) assessments.
I’d love to tell you I understand all the various ramifications of this failure. I don’t. There’s all sorts of tax cuts and spending that could expire if immediate action isn’t taken. I’m fairly sure our boss-hos Obama could veto…something in there. I dunno. Politics give me migraines.
What I do know is that this is one of many nails holding the coffin door shut on our economic growth and it isn’t getting loosened any time soon. A sobering example of the cost political jockeying has on our country. It has, however, had a very suppressing effect on interest rates which maintain their bottom-of-the-barrel status. I point this out as a valuable lesson. Markets will react to this tension, rest assured. And the outcome is very likely going to be non-end-of-the-world-y and we’ll eventually go back to business as usual. But this slight hiccup, this slight aberration in the grand scheme of things is something that can be capitalized upon if you play your cards right AND you play them at the right time.
So I sincerely hope that if you or anyone you know is thinking about real estate either as a home or for investment, you’re consulting with people who can help guide you through these economic waves. And if the people you are consulting with are awesome and handsome (like me) then that’s a bonus.
Yup. Awesome AND handsome. That’s a double-whammy.
Holiday season is officially upon us. Enjoy gaining ten pounds between now and the end of the year. I know I will. Heck, I plan on getting a head start on Thanksgiving: the only holiday where engorging yourself to the point of discomfort becomes a patriotic duty. Afterwards please spend copious sums of cash out there on Black Friday. Uncle Sam needs some good earnings reports out of the retail sector pretty soon to jolly up what is proving to be a sputtering Q4.
Republicans enjoyed a rousing debate concerning foreign policy this Tuesday on CNN. Evidently Newt Gingrich is doing well in the polls, bringing new scrutiny to his defense of Freddie Mac executives’ bonuses and his previous advising role with Freddie. This is coming after Herman Cain allegedly molested a woman, Rick Perry forgot who he was and what the hell he was doing on national television and Mitt Romney…was Mormon. All equally egregious actions. Frankly, I’ve quit keeping track. I’m write-in voting for the Elmo/Oscar the Grouch ticket in the preliminaries because they bal¬ance one another well and approach most of the hard-hitting issues with “hugs” and “educational and catchy tunes”.
Yes, I am a registered Republican which probably shocks a large majority of you.
Anyone remember the re-vamping of HAMP that our executive branch was all excited about late October? No? Yeah, that’s because no one picked up the ball and ran with it. Because it would essentially become a game of kill the lender with the ball.
Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Qishan announced that global economic outlook remains grim and that we are staring at an inevitably protracted economic downturn. Not downing the validity of Wang’s claim, but this is the Joe Biden of China we’re talking about. If Joe came out and announced that we all need to go on a Chihuahua-only diet I wouldn’t be entirely surprised. They are high in protein.
Okay, I know there is a Chinese president and comparing Wang to Biden isn’t a proper parallel, but I wanted to make this Biden joke. Deal with it.
Anywho, I hope this brought a smile to your face. Things’ll get gooder out there. In the meantime, let’s take this opportunity to be thankful for all the good things we’ve all got going on in our individual lives. I wish each and every one of you a Happy Thanksgiving and a prosperous tail end to 2011.
All your mortgages are belong to Greg.
Well, that didn’t happen. Today is their official deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did some sort of kick-the-can-down-the-road move to try and save their political lives. Unfortunately, such actions may not be very warmly received by the ratings agencies, threatening yet another eventual U.S. debt downgrade despite recent reaffirmations of their latest AAA (or in S&P’s case AA+) assessments.
I’d love to tell you I understand all the various ramifications of this failure. I don’t. There’s all sorts of tax cuts and spending that could expire if immediate action isn’t taken. I’m fairly sure our boss-hos Obama could veto…something in there. I dunno. Politics give me migraines.
What I do know is that this is one of many nails holding the coffin door shut on our economic growth and it isn’t getting loosened any time soon. A sobering example of the cost political jockeying has on our country. It has, however, had a very suppressing effect on interest rates which maintain their bottom-of-the-barrel status. I point this out as a valuable lesson. Markets will react to this tension, rest assured. And the outcome is very likely going to be non-end-of-the-world-y and we’ll eventually go back to business as usual. But this slight hiccup, this slight aberration in the grand scheme of things is something that can be capitalized upon if you play your cards right AND you play them at the right time.
So I sincerely hope that if you or anyone you know is thinking about real estate either as a home or for investment, you’re consulting with people who can help guide you through these economic waves. And if the people you are consulting with are awesome and handsome (like me) then that’s a bonus.
Yup. Awesome AND handsome. That’s a double-whammy.
Holiday season is officially upon us. Enjoy gaining ten pounds between now and the end of the year. I know I will. Heck, I plan on getting a head start on Thanksgiving: the only holiday where engorging yourself to the point of discomfort becomes a patriotic duty. Afterwards please spend copious sums of cash out there on Black Friday. Uncle Sam needs some good earnings reports out of the retail sector pretty soon to jolly up what is proving to be a sputtering Q4.
Republicans enjoyed a rousing debate concerning foreign policy this Tuesday on CNN. Evidently Newt Gingrich is doing well in the polls, bringing new scrutiny to his defense of Freddie Mac executives’ bonuses and his previous advising role with Freddie. This is coming after Herman Cain allegedly molested a woman, Rick Perry forgot who he was and what the hell he was doing on national television and Mitt Romney…was Mormon. All equally egregious actions. Frankly, I’ve quit keeping track. I’m write-in voting for the Elmo/Oscar the Grouch ticket in the preliminaries because they bal¬ance one another well and approach most of the hard-hitting issues with “hugs” and “educational and catchy tunes”.
Yes, I am a registered Republican which probably shocks a large majority of you.
Anyone remember the re-vamping of HAMP that our executive branch was all excited about late October? No? Yeah, that’s because no one picked up the ball and ran with it. Because it would essentially become a game of kill the lender with the ball.
Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Qishan announced that global economic outlook remains grim and that we are staring at an inevitably protracted economic downturn. Not downing the validity of Wang’s claim, but this is the Joe Biden of China we’re talking about. If Joe came out and announced that we all need to go on a Chihuahua-only diet I wouldn’t be entirely surprised. They are high in protein.
Okay, I know there is a Chinese president and comparing Wang to Biden isn’t a proper parallel, but I wanted to make this Biden joke. Deal with it.
Anywho, I hope this brought a smile to your face. Things’ll get gooder out there. In the meantime, let’s take this opportunity to be thankful for all the good things we’ve all got going on in our individual lives. I wish each and every one of you a Happy Thanksgiving and a prosperous tail end to 2011.
All your mortgages are belong to Greg.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
The more I learn about Europe the less I care
So the hot topic in the world of business these days is Europe. And it’s not just for their cutting-edge fashion, holier-than-thou attitudes or super-weird toilets. This time it’s because they are all enjoying their own adorable debt crises. Did you know that it’s a whole bunch of different countries over there? And they all have their own little leaders who may or may not like each other? And all their leaders have funny titles like Prime Minister or Premier or Grand Poobah? It’s Ri-DIC-ulous.
To be honest, I don’t really care. Chances are you don’t care either. All you know is that if catastrophe strikes over there, it will somehow drag us into the ooze along with it because we’re all inter-connected in this global economy. Like ‘It’s a Small World” only with mortgage-backed derivatives buried in each of their respective national debt structures. The only remotely amusing thing to report is that French President Sarkozy was caught talking smack about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Obama was caught not doing anything about it. Oh SNAP. No he di’int! Looks like this jive-talkin’ turkey best check himself befo’ he wrecks himself.
And by “wrecks himself” I mean ends up on the receiving end of a couple dozen nuclear warheads. Seriously, the whole Israel/Palestine thing is nuts to begin with. I wouldn’t try to piss any of them off.
What we’re all concerned about is what’s happening domestically. Well, we’ve actually got some enjoyable stuff going on. September new home sales came in at a 5.7% month-over-month increase, the first uptick in 4 months. October jobs report showed an increase of 80,000 jobs, hinting at a thin silver lining shining over our dark employment picture. This follows an upwardly revised increase from 103,000 jobs created to 158,000 in September and was enough to tick the unemployment rate down to 9.0%. Not great, but certainly good.
But not everything is sunshine and roses. Remember last newsletter when I said that Orlando was effectively underwater? Well, analysts have one-upped me in a humongous way, boldly stating that half of homes backed by a mortgage are effectively underwater. By their train of thought, homeowners who owe 85% or more of their home’s value are effectively underwater because they lack the 6% realtor commission to sell their place and a 10% down payment on whatever new home they seek. So those homeowners (about half of all mortgagors) are stuck in traction from the situation.
Let’s take a step back and enjoy a hot logic injection: equity is purely based on widespread belief. Period. When (not if) people begin to believe in real estate again for what it fundamentally is, previously sidelined buyers will creep back into the market, demand will rise, bidding wars will ensue and ka-boom, equity returns. A virtuous cycle will kick in and the whole thing will be back on track. Suddenly not so many people are underwater. If you are betting against this series of events coming to fruition then I look forward to saying “I told you so” a decade from now.
What, pray tell, do I believe real estate fundamentally is? A slow-and-steady appreciating asset. One of the only asset classes that average consumers can leverage smart, tax-deductible debt safely against. A physical piece of the American Dream. A kingdom all your own. The place your kids remember growing up.
I have never believed I would be able to “sell” any of you on the concept of buying a home through these newsletters. That decision is, in my opinion, more contingent upon your personal life circum-stances than it is on what kind of “deal” happens to be available. Let there be no question: there will be no shortage of bad news for the real estate market for the near term future. But that doesn’t diminish the intrinsic value of owning a home. Fact of the matter is that owning a home can be one of the most rewarding things you ever do. And I’m here to make that happen for you.
So please use me as an asset. Got questions about something you saw on TV? Call or e-mail me and I’ll provide some clarity. Been thinking about restructuring the debt on your real estate investments? I’ll crunch numbers for you to figure out what is the best course of action. Thinking about buying a place in the next two years? Let me know and I’ll show you the best path to get there. I’m here for you to help in any way I can.
If I were next to you, I would totally bro-hug you right now. That’s how much I care.
On a completely unrelated but hilarious note, KEL law firm (famed for helping people fight foreclosure cases) has been ousted from the Better Business Bureau amid complaints. This is the first area law firm to be drop-kicked through the goalposts of FAIL in 27 years. They were accused of charging thousands of dollars for foreclosure-defense or mortgage-modification services that were either poorly done or not done at all. So maybe consider talking to industry professionals if you’re in trouble as opposed to overly-advertised lawyers. Juuuuuuuuust saying...
To be honest, I don’t really care. Chances are you don’t care either. All you know is that if catastrophe strikes over there, it will somehow drag us into the ooze along with it because we’re all inter-connected in this global economy. Like ‘It’s a Small World” only with mortgage-backed derivatives buried in each of their respective national debt structures. The only remotely amusing thing to report is that French President Sarkozy was caught talking smack about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Obama was caught not doing anything about it. Oh SNAP. No he di’int! Looks like this jive-talkin’ turkey best check himself befo’ he wrecks himself.
And by “wrecks himself” I mean ends up on the receiving end of a couple dozen nuclear warheads. Seriously, the whole Israel/Palestine thing is nuts to begin with. I wouldn’t try to piss any of them off.
What we’re all concerned about is what’s happening domestically. Well, we’ve actually got some enjoyable stuff going on. September new home sales came in at a 5.7% month-over-month increase, the first uptick in 4 months. October jobs report showed an increase of 80,000 jobs, hinting at a thin silver lining shining over our dark employment picture. This follows an upwardly revised increase from 103,000 jobs created to 158,000 in September and was enough to tick the unemployment rate down to 9.0%. Not great, but certainly good.
But not everything is sunshine and roses. Remember last newsletter when I said that Orlando was effectively underwater? Well, analysts have one-upped me in a humongous way, boldly stating that half of homes backed by a mortgage are effectively underwater. By their train of thought, homeowners who owe 85% or more of their home’s value are effectively underwater because they lack the 6% realtor commission to sell their place and a 10% down payment on whatever new home they seek. So those homeowners (about half of all mortgagors) are stuck in traction from the situation.
Let’s take a step back and enjoy a hot logic injection: equity is purely based on widespread belief. Period. When (not if) people begin to believe in real estate again for what it fundamentally is, previously sidelined buyers will creep back into the market, demand will rise, bidding wars will ensue and ka-boom, equity returns. A virtuous cycle will kick in and the whole thing will be back on track. Suddenly not so many people are underwater. If you are betting against this series of events coming to fruition then I look forward to saying “I told you so” a decade from now.
What, pray tell, do I believe real estate fundamentally is? A slow-and-steady appreciating asset. One of the only asset classes that average consumers can leverage smart, tax-deductible debt safely against. A physical piece of the American Dream. A kingdom all your own. The place your kids remember growing up.
I have never believed I would be able to “sell” any of you on the concept of buying a home through these newsletters. That decision is, in my opinion, more contingent upon your personal life circum-stances than it is on what kind of “deal” happens to be available. Let there be no question: there will be no shortage of bad news for the real estate market for the near term future. But that doesn’t diminish the intrinsic value of owning a home. Fact of the matter is that owning a home can be one of the most rewarding things you ever do. And I’m here to make that happen for you.
So please use me as an asset. Got questions about something you saw on TV? Call or e-mail me and I’ll provide some clarity. Been thinking about restructuring the debt on your real estate investments? I’ll crunch numbers for you to figure out what is the best course of action. Thinking about buying a place in the next two years? Let me know and I’ll show you the best path to get there. I’m here for you to help in any way I can.
If I were next to you, I would totally bro-hug you right now. That’s how much I care.
On a completely unrelated but hilarious note, KEL law firm (famed for helping people fight foreclosure cases) has been ousted from the Better Business Bureau amid complaints. This is the first area law firm to be drop-kicked through the goalposts of FAIL in 27 years. They were accused of charging thousands of dollars for foreclosure-defense or mortgage-modification services that were either poorly done or not done at all. So maybe consider talking to industry professionals if you’re in trouble as opposed to overly-advertised lawyers. Juuuuuuuuust saying...
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
There's no need for a pool when your whole city is underwater
Gaddhafi is dead. That’s pretty fun. Though I can’t imagine there are many people who’d like to fill his now empty shoes. Being told “the guy who had this job before you was brutally ambushed by a coalition of world forces, captured and beaten/shot to death before he could stand trial” would be a deal-breaker for me.
But this is good news for reducing the number of wars we are waging. Hopefully. Obama also announced last week that the vast majority of U.S. military forces will be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of this year. So I imagine that will provide a nice boost to the unemployment numbers at the end of this year.
Ha ha. It’s funny because we as a country haven’t even half the respect for our veterans that we used to. And by funny, I mean epicly sad.
National existing home sales dropped 3% in September according to the National Association of Realtors. Conversely, housing starts jumped up 15% and beat estimates in the same month. Yet another grab-bag of mixed indicators. To strike a more intimate nerve with us Central Floridians, CoreLogic recently released analytics indicating that the total mortgage debt in Orlando is greater than the sum of the property values.
You read it right: the City Beautiful is underwater.
Know what? I won’t sugar-coat it. This isn’t good. However, it is a reminder that we seem to consis-tently be at the most extreme points of market swings. When it was good everywhere else it was REALLY good in Orlando. Apparently the opposite is now true.
Coincidentally, U.S. regulators released a statement saying they will be easing the terms of the Making Home Affordable Refinance Program by scrapping the 125% loan-to-value cap. So, according to their logic, no matter how much you owe you can refinance to a lower rate.
News flash: Lenders weren't allowing the refinances to go past 105% regardless of what Uncle Sam mandated. If I had to guess, they will laugh this program right into obscurity before it has a chance to do anything useful.
And on the topic of large institutions flapping their gums about stuff that isn’t going to actually happen, the Vatican came out today requesting a central world bank. Because I know when I think financial authority, I think of the pope. The same guy that says how awesome heaven is while surrounding himself in bullet-proof glass.
The overall volatility coupled with government programs aimed at driving mortgage rates down sent the Freddie Mac average 30-year fixed rate below 4% earlier this month for the first time since the 1940’s. So the whole “rates are still super-low” thing is going on. That’s a bright spot.
Occupy Wall Street. Oodles and oodles of people with posterboard signs. I don’t get it. Yes, I can empathize with Americans feeling cheated by the corporations our tax dollars bailed out and I can wrap my brain around a desire for change. But WHAT change? You think we’re going to re-write the laws of capitalism because of wealth imbalances? I feel really old when I say “Get a job, hippies!”
But amidst all of this craziness, I know for a fact that your friends, family and associates are still out there buying houses. Rates are good and home prices are incredibly affordable. I ask that you please keep me at the front of your mind and mention me when these conversations happen. Your referrals of people looking to buy or refinance homes are the lifeblood of my business. Thanks in advance.
But this is good news for reducing the number of wars we are waging. Hopefully. Obama also announced last week that the vast majority of U.S. military forces will be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of this year. So I imagine that will provide a nice boost to the unemployment numbers at the end of this year.
Ha ha. It’s funny because we as a country haven’t even half the respect for our veterans that we used to. And by funny, I mean epicly sad.
National existing home sales dropped 3% in September according to the National Association of Realtors. Conversely, housing starts jumped up 15% and beat estimates in the same month. Yet another grab-bag of mixed indicators. To strike a more intimate nerve with us Central Floridians, CoreLogic recently released analytics indicating that the total mortgage debt in Orlando is greater than the sum of the property values.
You read it right: the City Beautiful is underwater.
Know what? I won’t sugar-coat it. This isn’t good. However, it is a reminder that we seem to consis-tently be at the most extreme points of market swings. When it was good everywhere else it was REALLY good in Orlando. Apparently the opposite is now true.
Coincidentally, U.S. regulators released a statement saying they will be easing the terms of the Making Home Affordable Refinance Program by scrapping the 125% loan-to-value cap. So, according to their logic, no matter how much you owe you can refinance to a lower rate.
News flash: Lenders weren't allowing the refinances to go past 105% regardless of what Uncle Sam mandated. If I had to guess, they will laugh this program right into obscurity before it has a chance to do anything useful.
And on the topic of large institutions flapping their gums about stuff that isn’t going to actually happen, the Vatican came out today requesting a central world bank. Because I know when I think financial authority, I think of the pope. The same guy that says how awesome heaven is while surrounding himself in bullet-proof glass.
The overall volatility coupled with government programs aimed at driving mortgage rates down sent the Freddie Mac average 30-year fixed rate below 4% earlier this month for the first time since the 1940’s. So the whole “rates are still super-low” thing is going on. That’s a bright spot.
Occupy Wall Street. Oodles and oodles of people with posterboard signs. I don’t get it. Yes, I can empathize with Americans feeling cheated by the corporations our tax dollars bailed out and I can wrap my brain around a desire for change. But WHAT change? You think we’re going to re-write the laws of capitalism because of wealth imbalances? I feel really old when I say “Get a job, hippies!”
But amidst all of this craziness, I know for a fact that your friends, family and associates are still out there buying houses. Rates are good and home prices are incredibly affordable. I ask that you please keep me at the front of your mind and mention me when these conversations happen. Your referrals of people looking to buy or refinance homes are the lifeblood of my business. Thanks in advance.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Good riddance Q3
Warren Buffett says there won’t be another recession. So there won’t be another recession. Next topic.
Today is the last day in Q3, which was the worst quarter (in terms of equities) since the financial collapse. I imagine that to recoup these losses, we will start seeing holiday shopping ads before Halloween this year. Watch it happen. Santa Claus and the Dreidel Monster and Kwanzaa-bot will save us all.
Someone named Chris Christie is said to be considering entering the Republican presidential race. That would bring the total of candidates up to 74. Marky Mark had no comment.
Everyone is pissed about Bank of America charging a $5.00 monthly fee for debit card use. Regions just stuck me with a similar $4.00 fee. Is everyone else paying to use their own money? Just curious.
Today is the last day in Q3, which was the worst quarter (in terms of equities) since the financial collapse. I imagine that to recoup these losses, we will start seeing holiday shopping ads before Halloween this year. Watch it happen. Santa Claus and the Dreidel Monster and Kwanzaa-bot will save us all.
Someone named Chris Christie is said to be considering entering the Republican presidential race. That would bring the total of candidates up to 74. Marky Mark had no comment.
Everyone is pissed about Bank of America charging a $5.00 monthly fee for debit card use. Regions just stuck me with a similar $4.00 fee. Is everyone else paying to use their own money? Just curious.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Let's party until the economy fixes itself!
I want to lead this one off by inviting all of you to my lovely bride’s 29th birthday party. It is going to be a family-friendly event over at Wekiva Island (1014 Miami Springs Road, Longwood, FL 32779) on Sunday October 9th from 1pm until 4 pm. We will be providing a cabana and food and soft drinks for everyone and the entire event will be a benefit for Child Rescue Network. So in lieu of gifts for Erin, please consider making a donation to CRN which advocates the education and protection of children from predators. Please visit the Facebook invite here.
And now onto the “news”.
When Chubby Checker implored us repeatedly to “do the Twist”, I am somehow not thinking he was referring to a macro-economic act of last resort where we essentially exchange an equivalent amount of short-term debt for longer-term debt. I think he wanted us to shake our asses in front of the opposite sex in the hopes of gaining their favor and eventually practicing the reproductive act.
But we’re going to do the boring first version, not the awesome Chubby version. It’s essentially QE3 lite sans the printing of more money. But what will it accomplish?
Ever done a balance transfer from one credit card to another? Yeah. That’s basically what we’re doing. I believe this is the step right before begging one’s relatives for cash which is followed by reluctantly taking a loan out from your “friendly” local bookie/Amscot which inexorably leads to having your knees broken by said bookie/Amscot.
Yes. Amscot will break your knees. And by Amscot, I mean China.
A recent Federal Reserve study elucidated the fact that about 2.3 million homeowners could have refinanced last year had lending standards not been so strict or had they not owed more than the home is worth. You don’t say. Well I’ll be goll-derned. You mean to tell me that this whole mortgage situation would be better if people still had home equity? Man. I gotta get me some of THAT stuff.
Existing home sales jumped upwards 7.7% while new home sales dropped 2.3% month-over-month. Translation: the waters are still choppy. No clear trend-line has emerged giving investors or prospective homeowners a clear direction as to where the market is heading. I’d love to give you the rose-tinted approach to these numbers, but that would be disingenuous of me.
Amidst that choppiness, Moody’s ratings agency cut the ratings for debt issued by Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, claiming that the U.S. is now more likely (due to political pressures) to allow a defunct bank to go under (as opposed to an AIG-style of taxpayer subsidized bailout). Good to know that major bank failure is still at the forefront of our minds. That worked out ever so well back in 2008.
Palestine has applied to the UN for independent statehood and recognition as a full member in the world body. I’m sure that will end well. Or with a nuclear holocaust. Either or.
Republicans have debated across pretty much every major network in a borderline comedic series of back-and-forths between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, a Florida straw poll showed Her-man Cain (the only person who has never served in public office) winning the republican bid for presi-dent by a double-digit margin. Seriously Florida, didn’t we do enough damage during the Gore/Bush recount fiasco? We keep this crap up and the rest of the country is going to saw us off at the Georgia border and let us float over to Cuba.
Come out and party with us on the 9th. There will be cookies. And who doesn’t love cookies? Chubby loves cookies. Kind of a stretch jumping from being booted out of the nation a la ice floe to cookies, but I think I pulled it off. COOKIEEEEEES!!!!!
And now onto the “news”.
When Chubby Checker implored us repeatedly to “do the Twist”, I am somehow not thinking he was referring to a macro-economic act of last resort where we essentially exchange an equivalent amount of short-term debt for longer-term debt. I think he wanted us to shake our asses in front of the opposite sex in the hopes of gaining their favor and eventually practicing the reproductive act.
But we’re going to do the boring first version, not the awesome Chubby version. It’s essentially QE3 lite sans the printing of more money. But what will it accomplish?
Ever done a balance transfer from one credit card to another? Yeah. That’s basically what we’re doing. I believe this is the step right before begging one’s relatives for cash which is followed by reluctantly taking a loan out from your “friendly” local bookie/Amscot which inexorably leads to having your knees broken by said bookie/Amscot.
Yes. Amscot will break your knees. And by Amscot, I mean China.
A recent Federal Reserve study elucidated the fact that about 2.3 million homeowners could have refinanced last year had lending standards not been so strict or had they not owed more than the home is worth. You don’t say. Well I’ll be goll-derned. You mean to tell me that this whole mortgage situation would be better if people still had home equity? Man. I gotta get me some of THAT stuff.
Existing home sales jumped upwards 7.7% while new home sales dropped 2.3% month-over-month. Translation: the waters are still choppy. No clear trend-line has emerged giving investors or prospective homeowners a clear direction as to where the market is heading. I’d love to give you the rose-tinted approach to these numbers, but that would be disingenuous of me.
Amidst that choppiness, Moody’s ratings agency cut the ratings for debt issued by Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, claiming that the U.S. is now more likely (due to political pressures) to allow a defunct bank to go under (as opposed to an AIG-style of taxpayer subsidized bailout). Good to know that major bank failure is still at the forefront of our minds. That worked out ever so well back in 2008.
Palestine has applied to the UN for independent statehood and recognition as a full member in the world body. I’m sure that will end well. Or with a nuclear holocaust. Either or.
Republicans have debated across pretty much every major network in a borderline comedic series of back-and-forths between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, a Florida straw poll showed Her-man Cain (the only person who has never served in public office) winning the republican bid for presi-dent by a double-digit margin. Seriously Florida, didn’t we do enough damage during the Gore/Bush recount fiasco? We keep this crap up and the rest of the country is going to saw us off at the Georgia border and let us float over to Cuba.
Come out and party with us on the 9th. There will be cookies. And who doesn’t love cookies? Chubby loves cookies. Kind of a stretch jumping from being booted out of the nation a la ice floe to cookies, but I think I pulled it off. COOKIEEEEEES!!!!!
Thursday, September 15, 2011
I promise I’m not TRYING to find bad news
Weekly jobless claims rose to 428,000 which was 11,000 ahead of consensus estimates. It’s a vicious cycle: companies get spooked on renewed recession fears so they slow hiring which puts many out of a job which lowers overall spending which lowers overall company revenue which (tadaaaa) causes another recession. Ah, the circle of life.
And inflation is creeping back into the picture. The Consumer Price Index is up 0.4% while the Core CPI (excluding more volatile food and energy components) is up 0.2%. While many would claim this is just a by-product of all the quantitative easing floating around the globe, it is still worth an eye-raise.
Mortgage default notices surged 33% month over month in August, indicating that the delay between “stop paying” and “stop staying” may be rapidly diminishing. Now, there is the obvious downside of people losing their homes, however there is the second thought of WHY the banks suddenly want to snatch up real estate more aggressively. Could it be that they smell at least a small recovery coming? Only time will tell.
UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank suffered a $2 billion loss at the hands of one rogue trader. One dude. One guy. 2 billion. Damn, buddy. You really put the ‘epic’ in ‘epic fail’. And all the Bourne movies made me think Swiss banks were all high-techy and smart enough to prevent crap like this from happening. That’s Hollywood magic for ya.
And inflation is creeping back into the picture. The Consumer Price Index is up 0.4% while the Core CPI (excluding more volatile food and energy components) is up 0.2%. While many would claim this is just a by-product of all the quantitative easing floating around the globe, it is still worth an eye-raise.
Mortgage default notices surged 33% month over month in August, indicating that the delay between “stop paying” and “stop staying” may be rapidly diminishing. Now, there is the obvious downside of people losing their homes, however there is the second thought of WHY the banks suddenly want to snatch up real estate more aggressively. Could it be that they smell at least a small recovery coming? Only time will tell.
UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank suffered a $2 billion loss at the hands of one rogue trader. One dude. One guy. 2 billion. Damn, buddy. You really put the ‘epic’ in ‘epic fail’. And all the Bourne movies made me think Swiss banks were all high-techy and smart enough to prevent crap like this from happening. That’s Hollywood magic for ya.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Another day in the life...
Italy is going to China for assistance with their debt crisis. Is anyone else concerned that China is becoming the world’s bank? And aren’t they stricken by pandemic poverty? Why does none of this make any logical sense?
With his shiny new jobs creation bill, how does Obama plan to pay for it? Yup, ending tax breaks on the wealthy. I love how the same basic conversation gets re-packaged and re-argued in so many different ways. But it’s the saaaaaame crap again. Political gridlock, here we come. And in the run-up to an election year, we can expect a whole lot of very eloquent nothingness to happen.
According to Clear Capital, Jacksonville has finally eeked out Detroit for the coveted title of worst-performing real estate market. Yaaaayyy… wait what? Damn. Worse that Detroit?
With his shiny new jobs creation bill, how does Obama plan to pay for it? Yup, ending tax breaks on the wealthy. I love how the same basic conversation gets re-packaged and re-argued in so many different ways. But it’s the saaaaaame crap again. Political gridlock, here we come. And in the run-up to an election year, we can expect a whole lot of very eloquent nothingness to happen.
According to Clear Capital, Jacksonville has finally eeked out Detroit for the coveted title of worst-performing real estate market. Yaaaayyy… wait what? Damn. Worse that Detroit?
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Politics makes me grumpy
Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest levels in four decades in response to continued international debt crisis concerns. So, at least we got that going for us. Now if we only had equity. Or jobs.
The ECB has vowed to keep rate hikes on hold, however they did not signal any additional liquidity measures were going to be implemented. But I’m sure, given the fact that they have a handful of countries teetering on fundamental insolvency that the “wait and see” approach will work out juuuuust fine.
Today we get to hear Obama discuss the process by when he will turn 300 billion dollars into jobs for Americans. I hear in the encore he’s going to tell us the secret of spinning thread into gold.
Mitt Romney and Rick Perry took some very eloquent pot-shots at one another during the Republican debate last night. I find this weird, as I’m fairly sure one is a clone of the other. I just don’t know who the original is.
The ECB has vowed to keep rate hikes on hold, however they did not signal any additional liquidity measures were going to be implemented. But I’m sure, given the fact that they have a handful of countries teetering on fundamental insolvency that the “wait and see” approach will work out juuuuust fine.
Today we get to hear Obama discuss the process by when he will turn 300 billion dollars into jobs for Americans. I hear in the encore he’s going to tell us the secret of spinning thread into gold.
Mitt Romney and Rick Perry took some very eloquent pot-shots at one another during the Republican debate last night. I find this weird, as I’m fairly sure one is a clone of the other. I just don’t know who the original is.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Aaaand we're back!
Europe stocks rallied because this time they’re really REALLY going to get tough on austerity measures and deal with their gaping chasm of debt. This is akin to someone on January 1st who is really REALLY going to stick to their diet this year. Riiiiiight.
U.S. banks are being put through yet another round of stress tests to examine if additional raising of capital is necessary. This will be as good a time as any to employ the “mark to fantasy” method of accounting so we can all sleep well. I love modern banking. It’s more theory than reality.
The President is going to give a speech about how 300 billion in spending will create enough jobs to hopefully make us back, I dunno, at least half of that. Hopefully. Republicans are unamused.
First blog post since I got back from vacation. I’m pacing myself.
U.S. banks are being put through yet another round of stress tests to examine if additional raising of capital is necessary. This will be as good a time as any to employ the “mark to fantasy” method of accounting so we can all sleep well. I love modern banking. It’s more theory than reality.
The President is going to give a speech about how 300 billion in spending will create enough jobs to hopefully make us back, I dunno, at least half of that. Hopefully. Republicans are unamused.
First blog post since I got back from vacation. I’m pacing myself.
It took me twenty minutes to come up with this needlessly alliterative first line
Oh the cornucopia of crap that creation has consigned upon me to collate and convey to you, my very own congregation of cohorts craving critical cognizance of current cultural circumstance.
Yes, I have been playing Words With Friends. A lot of it. And if the Count were here, he would tell you that today’s newsletter is brought to you by the letter C and the number zero.
Why zero? Because it segues quite conveniently (Yay! Another long C-word!) into our most recent jobs report. We, as a country, created EXACTLY zero jobs! Now the glass-half-full sort will doubtlessly applaud the fact that we didn’t lose any jobs, but sadly they cannot afford to even half-fill their glasses. Sad, though amusingly ironic.
But in all seriousness, we suck out loud on the creating jobs front. To the point where all of political punditry is up in arms about job creation. Obama himself is pegged to give a speech about it tomorrow to both houses of Congress. You’ll watch it. Or you won’t. Statistically speaking: you won’t. Chances are I won’t either. But I will read what someone else writes about it and report back to you. Because original thought is massively overrated.
It’s amazing how broke everyone seems to be lately. Not on the you and me scale, but on the iconic institutional scale. Apparently, not only is Europe still broke (which continues to be a really big deal, I’m just bored of writing about it), but the United States Postal Service is also broke. Given the fact that e-mail is way awesomer, I am in no way surprised. I vote that we the taxpayers bail them out if and only if they stop all the junk mail from coming through.
The horrible truth is that the exact opposite of that solution is what will probably do some actual good. Ugh.
Speaking of broke, America’s obvious brokenness has driven us to a very Mafioso decision: we’re gonna let all the big banks off the hook for auto-foreclosing on people in exchange for a large cash settlement. Funny story really: these banks used computer models to write a bunch of insolvent loans and then used other computers to automatically sign paperwork (which probably should have been signed by a human being, or at least some sort of advanced primate) that foreclosed on these loans. Classy. And somehow they’re in trouble for this. However, that trouble can disappear if they pay us. ‘Merica.
Hurricane Irene was lame. But everyone in Florida knew it would be. Stupid over-reacty New Yorkers. And speaking of natural disasters, everything is bigger in Texas including massive house-consuming wildfires. BOOM, Texans. Turned your catch phrase against you, didn’t I? I will also lump into this category the natural disaster of Steve Jobs stepping down as CEO of Apple. My iPhone will never be the same now. All the Angry Birds are now just depressed birds.
Apparently Gaddhafi is on the run, though I didn’t hear any Bush-esque “We won the war!!!” speech. So I don’t know what to think about that. Frankly, I lost interest. As did America a while ago.
The Federal Reserve is all sorts of divided on additional stimulus measures. Bernanke is of the opinion that we need to print more money, otherwise we won’t be able to afford all the ink we’re using to print all this money.
Aaaaaaaand that was the sound of your mind being blown.
Market turmoil continues to take its toll on equities. In a flight-to-safety play, bond investors drove the 10-year Treasury note’s yield to an all-time low yesterday. Translation: everyone’s freaking out and they’re driving rates down like crazy. ALL YOUR REFINANCES ARE BELONG TO GREG.
If you get the reference above, I love you. I mean, I love you anyway. But if you get that line, you are a special sort of nerd. And that’s awesome. But please do call me to discuss refinancing. ...now.
Yes, I have been playing Words With Friends. A lot of it. And if the Count were here, he would tell you that today’s newsletter is brought to you by the letter C and the number zero.
Why zero? Because it segues quite conveniently (Yay! Another long C-word!) into our most recent jobs report. We, as a country, created EXACTLY zero jobs! Now the glass-half-full sort will doubtlessly applaud the fact that we didn’t lose any jobs, but sadly they cannot afford to even half-fill their glasses. Sad, though amusingly ironic.
But in all seriousness, we suck out loud on the creating jobs front. To the point where all of political punditry is up in arms about job creation. Obama himself is pegged to give a speech about it tomorrow to both houses of Congress. You’ll watch it. Or you won’t. Statistically speaking: you won’t. Chances are I won’t either. But I will read what someone else writes about it and report back to you. Because original thought is massively overrated.
It’s amazing how broke everyone seems to be lately. Not on the you and me scale, but on the iconic institutional scale. Apparently, not only is Europe still broke (which continues to be a really big deal, I’m just bored of writing about it), but the United States Postal Service is also broke. Given the fact that e-mail is way awesomer, I am in no way surprised. I vote that we the taxpayers bail them out if and only if they stop all the junk mail from coming through.
The horrible truth is that the exact opposite of that solution is what will probably do some actual good. Ugh.
Speaking of broke, America’s obvious brokenness has driven us to a very Mafioso decision: we’re gonna let all the big banks off the hook for auto-foreclosing on people in exchange for a large cash settlement. Funny story really: these banks used computer models to write a bunch of insolvent loans and then used other computers to automatically sign paperwork (which probably should have been signed by a human being, or at least some sort of advanced primate) that foreclosed on these loans. Classy. And somehow they’re in trouble for this. However, that trouble can disappear if they pay us. ‘Merica.
Hurricane Irene was lame. But everyone in Florida knew it would be. Stupid over-reacty New Yorkers. And speaking of natural disasters, everything is bigger in Texas including massive house-consuming wildfires. BOOM, Texans. Turned your catch phrase against you, didn’t I? I will also lump into this category the natural disaster of Steve Jobs stepping down as CEO of Apple. My iPhone will never be the same now. All the Angry Birds are now just depressed birds.
Apparently Gaddhafi is on the run, though I didn’t hear any Bush-esque “We won the war!!!” speech. So I don’t know what to think about that. Frankly, I lost interest. As did America a while ago.
The Federal Reserve is all sorts of divided on additional stimulus measures. Bernanke is of the opinion that we need to print more money, otherwise we won’t be able to afford all the ink we’re using to print all this money.
Aaaaaaaand that was the sound of your mind being blown.
Market turmoil continues to take its toll on equities. In a flight-to-safety play, bond investors drove the 10-year Treasury note’s yield to an all-time low yesterday. Translation: everyone’s freaking out and they’re driving rates down like crazy. ALL YOUR REFINANCES ARE BELONG TO GREG.
If you get the reference above, I love you. I mean, I love you anyway. But if you get that line, you are a special sort of nerd. And that’s awesome. But please do call me to discuss refinancing. ...now.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Earthquakes and Hurricanes and Revolutions, oh my!
Stocks are enjoying a nice relief rally, using the “no news is good news” as an excuse to buy. As such, gold prices are seeing a decline.
New home sales followed the lead of existing home sales and came in with disappointing numbers, down 0.7% month-over-month. The silver lining here is that it is up 6.8% year-over-year, reflecting what most of us already know: housing is recovering, it’s just taking its sweet time to do so.
Hurricane Irene is getting bigger and bigger, now forecast to be a category 4 by the time it hits the Carolinas. And Virginia just enjoyed a 5.8 magnitude earthquake, which I thought was a horror reserved for the West Coast yuppies. Guess not.
Qaddaffi pulled a ‘Saddam Hussein’ and has gone missing after Libyan rebels invaded and took his Tripoli compound. Now they get to play a rousing game of hide-and-seek-and-eventually-hang-a-dictator.
New home sales followed the lead of existing home sales and came in with disappointing numbers, down 0.7% month-over-month. The silver lining here is that it is up 6.8% year-over-year, reflecting what most of us already know: housing is recovering, it’s just taking its sweet time to do so.
Hurricane Irene is getting bigger and bigger, now forecast to be a category 4 by the time it hits the Carolinas. And Virginia just enjoyed a 5.8 magnitude earthquake, which I thought was a horror reserved for the West Coast yuppies. Guess not.
Qaddaffi pulled a ‘Saddam Hussein’ and has gone missing after Libyan rebels invaded and took his Tripoli compound. Now they get to play a rousing game of hide-and-seek-and-eventually-hang-a-dictator.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Back to school, ohhh back to school to prove to dad that I'm not a fool
Amercians’ consumer confidence has hit a new low. I blame the iPhone 5 for not being released yet. We don’t need confidence, we need a smartphone that is 3 ounces lighter AND has a higher resolution screen! I’ll fritter away my kids’ college fund for THAT toy!
School is back in session. So we can all get back to the age-old conversation of “How was your day? Fine. Great. No X-Box until your homework is done.”
Hurricane Irene decided to spare us her wrath and shall instead wreak it upon the heathens of South Carolina. Which is good, because I’m taking my vacation at the end of this week.
The rebels are ‘winning’ the Libyan war as they converge on Qaddaffi’s compound. Hopefully their Jedi training will be enough to topple the evil empire. And by “Jedi training” I mean “guns bought from known terrorists financed by us”. Yeah. This story’s gonna have a happy ending.
Mortgage delinquencies are on the rise again nationwide. Not a thrillingly good sign.
School is back in session. So we can all get back to the age-old conversation of “How was your day? Fine. Great. No X-Box until your homework is done.”
Hurricane Irene decided to spare us her wrath and shall instead wreak it upon the heathens of South Carolina. Which is good, because I’m taking my vacation at the end of this week.
The rebels are ‘winning’ the Libyan war as they converge on Qaddaffi’s compound. Hopefully their Jedi training will be enough to topple the evil empire. And by “Jedi training” I mean “guns bought from known terrorists financed by us”. Yeah. This story’s gonna have a happy ending.
Mortgage delinquencies are on the rise again nationwide. Not a thrillingly good sign.
Friday, August 19, 2011
The BRIC is sinking
BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are seeing a massive investor withdrawal from their investment funds. Meanwhile people are still piling into US Treasuries. Not trying to down emerging markets, but it stands as a bold example that when things are going crazy people still hide in the warm embrace of US debt. Because as bad as things may be here, they’re still better than everywhere else. Even Vladimir Putin has come forward and called the United States a “parasite” due to our increasing debt destabilizing the global economy WHILE he buys more of it. That’s like complaining about how fat our society has become while inhaling a dozen Krispy Kreme donuts between breaths.
Mmmmmmm. Krispy Kreme. Especially when they’re hot and fresh.
And in related news, gold settled at an all-time high yesterday as fear seems to be the top factor driving investment decisions in today’s market. So time to take grandma’s jewelry collection down to the neighborhood smelter and cash in! Her memory’s going anyway, so she won’t notice it’s gone.
Mmmmmmm. Krispy Kreme. Especially when they’re hot and fresh.
And in related news, gold settled at an all-time high yesterday as fear seems to be the top factor driving investment decisions in today’s market. So time to take grandma’s jewelry collection down to the neighborhood smelter and cash in! Her memory’s going anyway, so she won’t notice it’s gone.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
And boom goes the stock market
July Existing Home Sales missed the mark, falling by 3.5% month-over-month nationwide. Many point the finger at the west, where the decrease in conforming loan limits from $729,000 to $625,000 caused a tangible impact on their ability to get homes financed. Leave it to those starlets in California to screw it up for everyone.
Stocks are enjoying a tall glass of HOLY HELL ITS ARMAGEDDON IN EUROPE today, plunging over 400 points at the time of writing. I expect a relief rally coming in the next couple of business days, but the protracted volatility in equities is making for a noteworthy downward trend. Of course, pundits everywhere are trying to draw a correlation between Obama’s vacation and this stock madness.
And I think that the GOP is grooming so many presidential candidates in order to create some sort of super-robot-candidate a la Voltron. I gotta say, a building-sized machine housing all of the conservative ideals in one spot WOULD be an interesting contender in 2012. We’ll see.
Stocks are enjoying a tall glass of HOLY HELL ITS ARMAGEDDON IN EUROPE today, plunging over 400 points at the time of writing. I expect a relief rally coming in the next couple of business days, but the protracted volatility in equities is making for a noteworthy downward trend. Of course, pundits everywhere are trying to draw a correlation between Obama’s vacation and this stock madness.
And I think that the GOP is grooming so many presidential candidates in order to create some sort of super-robot-candidate a la Voltron. I gotta say, a building-sized machine housing all of the conservative ideals in one spot WOULD be an interesting contender in 2012. We’ll see.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
It ain't easy bein' Ben
It’s tough being Ben. Rick Perry recently came out calling Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing policies “treasonous”, claiming they undermine the long-term economic health of our nation. As a proper Texan, he suggested we draw and quarter Ben using only young bulls. Or suggested Ben step down. One or the other. I think I made that first one up.
Today, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Plosser announced that the Fed’s recent promise to keep rates low through mid-2013 might be more hot air than iron-clad agreement. This comes as no surprise considering he dissented with the decision in the first place. So at least he’s keeping his stories straight.
Mortgage Applications edged upwards by 4.1%, marked by an increase in refinance applications and a decrease in purchases. Recent stock volatility has contributed to super low rates which are catching quite a few eyes. The slowdown in purchases doesn’t bode well for homebuilders however, who are on track to build the fewest single-family homes in history this year. While this sucks for them, we certainly don’t need more inventory at this particular moment, at least locally.
Today, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Plosser announced that the Fed’s recent promise to keep rates low through mid-2013 might be more hot air than iron-clad agreement. This comes as no surprise considering he dissented with the decision in the first place. So at least he’s keeping his stories straight.
Mortgage Applications edged upwards by 4.1%, marked by an increase in refinance applications and a decrease in purchases. Recent stock volatility has contributed to super low rates which are catching quite a few eyes. The slowdown in purchases doesn’t bode well for homebuilders however, who are on track to build the fewest single-family homes in history this year. While this sucks for them, we certainly don’t need more inventory at this particular moment, at least locally.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
The downgrade heard 'round the world
I love being correct. Seems to happen a lot lately. Well, as expected our elected officials up on Capitol Hill brought together a multi-phased “compromise” of a bill to raise the debt ceiling on the very last day they had available. The time-crunch made for some very impressive political theater. Of course it was immediately signed into law and of course everyone promptly went out to the media outlets to discuss how their respective party sacrificed so much and the hooligans from the other party almost drove the nation to default.
Cuz it’s never your side’s fault. It’s those dirty, no good other-siders.
So, Armageddon avoided once again. That is, until Standard and Poors Ratings decided to take the “Screw America” spotlight and downgrade our treasury debt rating from AAA to AA+. Now, I don’t know about you, but if I ever brought home a AA+ on homework it would go right up on the fridge and I’d get ice cream that night. Clearly our debt rating does not receive similar kudos. Or ice cream.
This is the first debt downgrade our country has ever seen. It’s a pretty big deal. China came out and publically said that our days of “easy borrowing” are over which was kind of a rude thing for our eco-nomic bedfellow to say. Lots of other reputable sources (Forbes, Berkshire Hathaway, etc.) have come forward claiming that S&P was massively wrong to downgrade the debt, and the other two ratings agencies still hold us at a strong AAA.
This is following a horrific week in the equity markets, where Obama got a 513 point drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for a 50th birthday present. This week hasn’t been much better thus far. So if you’re planning on retiring here in the nearby future, I sincerely hope you are able to adjust your expectations. Because you can’t have your dog food AND ketchup now. Gotta tighten the ol’ belt.
The recent Fed Open Market Committee meeting proved essentially toothless aside from Bernanke telling the markets that they will need to “stand on their own” going forward. They also pledged to keep benchmark rates at these historic low levels through at least mid-2013, marking a noteworthy reduction in ambiguity over their policy going forward.
An interesting side-note though: 3 of the 10 Fed Chiefs dissented with keeping the target Fed Funds Rate between 0.00 and 0.25%, marking the first time since 1992 that the FOMC ended with so many dissenters. T’would seem there is a rising difference of opinion towards the low rates agenda.
England is evidently burning itself down. And I… I just don’t care. Maybe they finally figured out that warm beer sucks. Maybe it’s a crumpet famine, I dunno. Something dumb, probably.
And the bloodshed between us and the Taliban rages on. We have killed those involved in the downing of a U.S. helicopter containing 38 people, 22 of which were Navy Seals. A part of me wants to celebrate the retribution, but the whole situation stands as a grim reminder that we are indeed still at war with what continues to be a very dangerous enemy.
Know what? I hate ending on a downer. So here’s a link to a video about kittens. Everybody loves kittens. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtX8nswnUKU And those kittens want you to buy a house and finance it through Greg. Are you gonna deny them? I didn’t think so.
Cuz it’s never your side’s fault. It’s those dirty, no good other-siders.
So, Armageddon avoided once again. That is, until Standard and Poors Ratings decided to take the “Screw America” spotlight and downgrade our treasury debt rating from AAA to AA+. Now, I don’t know about you, but if I ever brought home a AA+ on homework it would go right up on the fridge and I’d get ice cream that night. Clearly our debt rating does not receive similar kudos. Or ice cream.
This is the first debt downgrade our country has ever seen. It’s a pretty big deal. China came out and publically said that our days of “easy borrowing” are over which was kind of a rude thing for our eco-nomic bedfellow to say. Lots of other reputable sources (Forbes, Berkshire Hathaway, etc.) have come forward claiming that S&P was massively wrong to downgrade the debt, and the other two ratings agencies still hold us at a strong AAA.
This is following a horrific week in the equity markets, where Obama got a 513 point drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for a 50th birthday present. This week hasn’t been much better thus far. So if you’re planning on retiring here in the nearby future, I sincerely hope you are able to adjust your expectations. Because you can’t have your dog food AND ketchup now. Gotta tighten the ol’ belt.
The recent Fed Open Market Committee meeting proved essentially toothless aside from Bernanke telling the markets that they will need to “stand on their own” going forward. They also pledged to keep benchmark rates at these historic low levels through at least mid-2013, marking a noteworthy reduction in ambiguity over their policy going forward.
An interesting side-note though: 3 of the 10 Fed Chiefs dissented with keeping the target Fed Funds Rate between 0.00 and 0.25%, marking the first time since 1992 that the FOMC ended with so many dissenters. T’would seem there is a rising difference of opinion towards the low rates agenda.
England is evidently burning itself down. And I… I just don’t care. Maybe they finally figured out that warm beer sucks. Maybe it’s a crumpet famine, I dunno. Something dumb, probably.
And the bloodshed between us and the Taliban rages on. We have killed those involved in the downing of a U.S. helicopter containing 38 people, 22 of which were Navy Seals. A part of me wants to celebrate the retribution, but the whole situation stands as a grim reminder that we are indeed still at war with what continues to be a very dangerous enemy.
Know what? I hate ending on a downer. So here’s a link to a video about kittens. Everybody loves kittens. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtX8nswnUKU And those kittens want you to buy a house and finance it through Greg. Are you gonna deny them? I didn’t think so.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Assuming we raise the national debt ceiling, cannibalism will be unnecessary
Wanna hear something crazy? I have some good real estate news to report. Like, a good sum of good news. Good vibes, bro. I feel like a hippie after Woodstock: all engorged with positivity and in desperate need of a burger and a bath.
Second quarter bank earning are pegged to indicate an expansion of loans on their balance sheets. A bunch of the nation’s biggest lenders are quietly modifying loans without request to create more man-ageable terms for borrowers they deem to be ‘at risk’. National housing starts are up 9% month-over-month. Orlando got named one of the top 10 cities to purchase investment properties in. We’re also on track to show a gain in local real estate prices by the end of this year.
Wanna watch a video that validates my optimism? Yes you do. By the mortgage planning guru himself Barry Habib.
Between Greece, Spain, Portugal, and now Italy, Europe has proceeded to don the title of international financial pariah, gracefully lifting that crown off of American real estate’s head. It’s like real estate was the class nerd and then someone transferred in who is on the math team AND had a dorky accent. Suddenly we’re yesterday’s news. No more wedgies here. Sweet, sweet forgetful nature of folk.
We have this report called the ADP (automatic data processing) employment report that comes out approximately a week before the actual employment report comes out. In a perfect world, this will be a good computer-generated signal as to what to expect in the actual employment numbers. And ADP said we gained 157,000 jobs from May to June! Huzzah! Champagne and caviar all around!
And then the employment report came out that we added just 18,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%. Huzz-wha??? Just goes to show you that when computers finally do dominate the human race al la Terminator/The Matrix, they won’t do any better of a job running the place than the idiots we got doing the job now.
Speaking of idiots running the place, the “should we or shouldn’t we raise the national debt ceiling” debate rages ever closer to the August 2nd deadline. Spoiler alert: they’re gonna figure it out before we default. The bi-partisan “Gang of Six” has already begun the process of breaking the gridlock on this issue. Fed Chief Bernanke even went so far as to announce the possibility of a third round of stimulus on the 13th before promptly and ominously rescinding his statement on the 14th.
Do you really think he’d even casually suggest issuing more new debt if he honestly thought that we’d default on the debt we’ve already got? I mean, whatever your opinion of Fed chief Ben Bernanke is, he’s not blind. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has indicated that he’s looking to shag-ass out of there once debt talks have settled. Having dealt head-on with the crossfire of the greatest economic tumult since the 30’s, I can’t say that I blame him.
So why all the pomp and circumstance? I get it. Republicans don’t dig the unadulterated spend-orgy that has been going on since Lehman fell. And since their voter base is comprised predominantly of fiscal conservatives, this seems as good a time as any (cough cough election year around the corner cough cough) to take a stand against runaway government spending. 10-4 kids. But if we actually default, holy international economic collapse Batman, it’s gonna get ugly fast.
Second quarter bank earning are pegged to indicate an expansion of loans on their balance sheets. A bunch of the nation’s biggest lenders are quietly modifying loans without request to create more man-ageable terms for borrowers they deem to be ‘at risk’. National housing starts are up 9% month-over-month. Orlando got named one of the top 10 cities to purchase investment properties in. We’re also on track to show a gain in local real estate prices by the end of this year.
Wanna watch a video that validates my optimism? Yes you do. By the mortgage planning guru himself Barry Habib.
Between Greece, Spain, Portugal, and now Italy, Europe has proceeded to don the title of international financial pariah, gracefully lifting that crown off of American real estate’s head. It’s like real estate was the class nerd and then someone transferred in who is on the math team AND had a dorky accent. Suddenly we’re yesterday’s news. No more wedgies here. Sweet, sweet forgetful nature of folk.
We have this report called the ADP (automatic data processing) employment report that comes out approximately a week before the actual employment report comes out. In a perfect world, this will be a good computer-generated signal as to what to expect in the actual employment numbers. And ADP said we gained 157,000 jobs from May to June! Huzzah! Champagne and caviar all around!
And then the employment report came out that we added just 18,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%. Huzz-wha??? Just goes to show you that when computers finally do dominate the human race al la Terminator/The Matrix, they won’t do any better of a job running the place than the idiots we got doing the job now.
Speaking of idiots running the place, the “should we or shouldn’t we raise the national debt ceiling” debate rages ever closer to the August 2nd deadline. Spoiler alert: they’re gonna figure it out before we default. The bi-partisan “Gang of Six” has already begun the process of breaking the gridlock on this issue. Fed Chief Bernanke even went so far as to announce the possibility of a third round of stimulus on the 13th before promptly and ominously rescinding his statement on the 14th.
Do you really think he’d even casually suggest issuing more new debt if he honestly thought that we’d default on the debt we’ve already got? I mean, whatever your opinion of Fed chief Ben Bernanke is, he’s not blind. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has indicated that he’s looking to shag-ass out of there once debt talks have settled. Having dealt head-on with the crossfire of the greatest economic tumult since the 30’s, I can’t say that I blame him.
So why all the pomp and circumstance? I get it. Republicans don’t dig the unadulterated spend-orgy that has been going on since Lehman fell. And since their voter base is comprised predominantly of fiscal conservatives, this seems as good a time as any (cough cough election year around the corner cough cough) to take a stand against runaway government spending. 10-4 kids. But if we actually default, holy international economic collapse Batman, it’s gonna get ugly fast.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Hasn't the first half of 2011 been awesome? Hasn't it?!?...Anyone?
Sometimes I feel like the only thing I can consistently say that is positive is “rates are super-low!” And they are. But beyond that… oy vey.
The Federal Reserve governors recently finished their semi-quarterly meeting. Amongst Bernanke’s musings were a cut in their projected growth forecast for the United States’ economic growth. Just like they cut the growth forecast in April. And in January. And in June 2010. And in January 2010. Evidently that elusive recovery just keeps hiding riiiiiiight around the corner. So close you can almost taste it. But I bet if you keep chasing that tail you’ll catch it. You just gotta run in circles FASTER.
Tee hee. Dog metaphor.
But I think Big Ben is right to not employ a 3rd round of quantitative easing. The first two rounds went further towards stimulating the stock market and commodity prices (which fed pretty immediately into the inflation we’re enjoying now) than it did towards spurring job growth and a housing recovery. And there is great validity in pointing the finger at the Libyan war and the Japanese earthquake crisis concerning the energy supply shocks we’ve been grappling with.
The question then becomes: When will the Fed blame inflation on the exceedingly accommodative policies it has been touting for the past 4 years? There will always be geo-political events to blame. But the fundamental inflation-driving threat stems from the whole friggin’ international money system churning so aggressively. Too much cash out there? Stuff gets more expensive to try and capture it.
And while we’re on the topic of inflation, President Obama tapped the strategic petroleum reserve in a response to the Libyan clusterf***’s supply-side pressures. Was this a primarily political move or a wise and pragmatic use of a “for emergencies only” American asset? That answer depends largely on where you choose to get your news from.
Combine higher inflation with an uptick in unemployment and whaddya get? A noteworthy drop in consumer spending. Honestly, this shouldn’t come as any huge surprise. More of a lagging indicator than anything else. Nonetheless, it’s got the talking heads a’talking.
Meanwhile, the debt ceiling debate still rages on, despite Obama’s finest attempts at taking Speaker Boehner out for golf. I thought golf solved everything! That’s how the Civil War got worked out! ...isn’t it?
It’s going to be interesting, given all the partisanship that has ravaged our political structure in recent years, to see how Washington’s starlets handle going into 2012 with a still-lagging economy. Election years do tend to bring out the shock-and-awe moves that get media attention. I just hope some consid-eration for long-term prosperity is maintained as both sides of the aisle jockey for our votes.
As it stands, I’m not holding my breath. So ends the 1st half of 2011. Fail.
The Federal Reserve governors recently finished their semi-quarterly meeting. Amongst Bernanke’s musings were a cut in their projected growth forecast for the United States’ economic growth. Just like they cut the growth forecast in April. And in January. And in June 2010. And in January 2010. Evidently that elusive recovery just keeps hiding riiiiiiight around the corner. So close you can almost taste it. But I bet if you keep chasing that tail you’ll catch it. You just gotta run in circles FASTER.
Tee hee. Dog metaphor.
But I think Big Ben is right to not employ a 3rd round of quantitative easing. The first two rounds went further towards stimulating the stock market and commodity prices (which fed pretty immediately into the inflation we’re enjoying now) than it did towards spurring job growth and a housing recovery. And there is great validity in pointing the finger at the Libyan war and the Japanese earthquake crisis concerning the energy supply shocks we’ve been grappling with.
The question then becomes: When will the Fed blame inflation on the exceedingly accommodative policies it has been touting for the past 4 years? There will always be geo-political events to blame. But the fundamental inflation-driving threat stems from the whole friggin’ international money system churning so aggressively. Too much cash out there? Stuff gets more expensive to try and capture it.
And while we’re on the topic of inflation, President Obama tapped the strategic petroleum reserve in a response to the Libyan clusterf***’s supply-side pressures. Was this a primarily political move or a wise and pragmatic use of a “for emergencies only” American asset? That answer depends largely on where you choose to get your news from.
Combine higher inflation with an uptick in unemployment and whaddya get? A noteworthy drop in consumer spending. Honestly, this shouldn’t come as any huge surprise. More of a lagging indicator than anything else. Nonetheless, it’s got the talking heads a’talking.
Meanwhile, the debt ceiling debate still rages on, despite Obama’s finest attempts at taking Speaker Boehner out for golf. I thought golf solved everything! That’s how the Civil War got worked out! ...isn’t it?
It’s going to be interesting, given all the partisanship that has ravaged our political structure in recent years, to see how Washington’s starlets handle going into 2012 with a still-lagging economy. Election years do tend to bring out the shock-and-awe moves that get media attention. I just hope some consid-eration for long-term prosperity is maintained as both sides of the aisle jockey for our votes.
As it stands, I’m not holding my breath. So ends the 1st half of 2011. Fail.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
The proverbial silver lining to our recent black cloud
Europe still pretty much sucks, Quantitative Easing v2.0 is coming to a conclusion in June which kicks a support leg out from under our economy, pending home sales are trash, home prices are down last month, we’re not making NEARLY enough jobs, 10-year Treasuries are selling right at 3% yield, Re-publicans refuse to raise the national debt ceiling and Democrats have declared we will freight train ourselves into the side of a debt building (owned mostly by China) if we don’t, and a bunch of other stuff that I am too lazy/sad to report.
Whew. Cathartic to just hammer it all out at once like that. You depressed yet? Well, back away from that ledge and read on. I actually have something that inspires optimism. The following is reprinted right from Yahoo Finance used without permission. Please don’t sue me, Yahoo.
“Everyone else is bearish. You cannot find a real-estate bull anywhere. No one wants to own this asset. No one wants to talk about it. No one wants to hear about it. Everyone seems to agree it's just going down, down, down — forever. They said much the same about stocks in 1987, 2002 and 2009; Treas-ury bonds in 1982; and gold in 2000. I cannot prove this is capitulation, but it sure smells something like it.
As ever, if you aren't disciplined and patient, this probably isn't for you. I have absolutely no idea when real estate is going to hit rock bottom. It may take several years. I suspect it will do so in different markets at different times. But there are good homes out there going really cheap. If you hunt down the bargains, you're disciplined about price, you get the right financing, and you hold on for five years or more, you'll probably do pretty well from here.”
A shocking yet disturbingly logical and down-to-earth assessment from the macroeconomic perspec-tive. So, think what you will amidst this round of blistering economic data, but this soldier marches on. But outside of indifferent national statistics, how is the market that YOU are involved in going?
Want to know how mortgage finance is going on the ground floor? It’s a whole lot of rebalancing all happening at the same time. Multiple regulatory changes come through on a monthly basis, over 80% of the sales (and consequently support) force has been wiped out since the height of the housing melee eliminating a lot of long-standing relationships people used to leverage to get things done. No lender wants to run the risk of “misinterpreting what Uncle Sam wants” amidst these shifting sands so much that they have become insufferable hardasses on what would in the past have been considered to be trivial situations. I can’t say I’d blame them; I’d probably do the same thing in their shoes.
It’s to the point that the National Association of Realtors recently called upon banks to ‘loosen their purse-strings’. Eloquent in its brevity. One of those “It is what it is” kind of situations right now, at least from this broker’s perspective. I could be wrong. I’m not, though. Demand is starting to pick back up. Lenders have gone a long way towards adapting to the ‘government-mandated mortgage market of tomorrow.’
I hear Walt Disney is already developing a theme park ride with that exact title. Crazy old dead Walt.
Moral of the story is that it pays dividends to have a scrappy broker. You’ve got choices as far as your mortgage finance goes. I get that. But I fight, kiddos and kiddettes. I fight like a champ. And if recent history is any indication, I win.
Not like Charlie Sheen. Like someone who ACTUALLY wins. Okay, blatant self-promotion over.
Oh, you’ll notice I took the high road and didn’t mention Sarah Palin’s knock-you-over dumbness sur-rounding Paul Revere’s ride or Rep. Anthony Weiner’s appropriately named mishap on Twitter (if you don’t get the joke, please don’t ask). Yup. Me and the high road, not mentioning that stuff. ...yup.
Whew. Cathartic to just hammer it all out at once like that. You depressed yet? Well, back away from that ledge and read on. I actually have something that inspires optimism. The following is reprinted right from Yahoo Finance used without permission. Please don’t sue me, Yahoo.
“Everyone else is bearish. You cannot find a real-estate bull anywhere. No one wants to own this asset. No one wants to talk about it. No one wants to hear about it. Everyone seems to agree it's just going down, down, down — forever. They said much the same about stocks in 1987, 2002 and 2009; Treas-ury bonds in 1982; and gold in 2000. I cannot prove this is capitulation, but it sure smells something like it.
As ever, if you aren't disciplined and patient, this probably isn't for you. I have absolutely no idea when real estate is going to hit rock bottom. It may take several years. I suspect it will do so in different markets at different times. But there are good homes out there going really cheap. If you hunt down the bargains, you're disciplined about price, you get the right financing, and you hold on for five years or more, you'll probably do pretty well from here.”
A shocking yet disturbingly logical and down-to-earth assessment from the macroeconomic perspec-tive. So, think what you will amidst this round of blistering economic data, but this soldier marches on. But outside of indifferent national statistics, how is the market that YOU are involved in going?
Want to know how mortgage finance is going on the ground floor? It’s a whole lot of rebalancing all happening at the same time. Multiple regulatory changes come through on a monthly basis, over 80% of the sales (and consequently support) force has been wiped out since the height of the housing melee eliminating a lot of long-standing relationships people used to leverage to get things done. No lender wants to run the risk of “misinterpreting what Uncle Sam wants” amidst these shifting sands so much that they have become insufferable hardasses on what would in the past have been considered to be trivial situations. I can’t say I’d blame them; I’d probably do the same thing in their shoes.
It’s to the point that the National Association of Realtors recently called upon banks to ‘loosen their purse-strings’. Eloquent in its brevity. One of those “It is what it is” kind of situations right now, at least from this broker’s perspective. I could be wrong. I’m not, though. Demand is starting to pick back up. Lenders have gone a long way towards adapting to the ‘government-mandated mortgage market of tomorrow.’
I hear Walt Disney is already developing a theme park ride with that exact title. Crazy old dead Walt.
Moral of the story is that it pays dividends to have a scrappy broker. You’ve got choices as far as your mortgage finance goes. I get that. But I fight, kiddos and kiddettes. I fight like a champ. And if recent history is any indication, I win.
Not like Charlie Sheen. Like someone who ACTUALLY wins. Okay, blatant self-promotion over.
Oh, you’ll notice I took the high road and didn’t mention Sarah Palin’s knock-you-over dumbness sur-rounding Paul Revere’s ride or Rep. Anthony Weiner’s appropriately named mishap on Twitter (if you don’t get the joke, please don’t ask). Yup. Me and the high road, not mentioning that stuff. ...yup.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
The good news and the WAY better news
America needed some good news. So we got up at 3 am and watched the British royal wedding. But despite Westminster Abbey’s palatial elegance and all the pomp and circumstance, it wasn’t good news-y enough. Like the latest Indiana Jones, where you get your hopes up and then just realize Harrison Ford is old and shouldn’t be doing stunts.
And then BOOM, our special forces bust into a compound in Pakistan, get into a fire fight, kill Osama Bin Laden and nab his body (hopefully to attach some strings to his limbs and make a marionette-style video to send back to the terrorists). THAT is some serious American good news. Screw that guy and his dialysis machine.
It’s like when your grandparents wrapped up a book for Christmas and got you all disappointed before giving you that bike they’d been hiding. Dick move, maw-maw and pop-pop. But thanks for the bike.
According to the Mortgage Monitor, mortgage delinquencies have dropped to their lowest level since 2008. So, not trying to say that it’s a huge deal, but it is a leading indicator of our communal financial stabilization. And late last month New Home Sales came in at a 11.1% month-over-month gain. AND a weak dollar is spurring a spike in foreign real estate investment in the US.
Goodness, I need to sit down. I had almost forgotten what it was like to report three pieces of good news back to back. Invigorating.
The national debt limit ceiling is still a hotly contested topic up on Capitol Hill. Should gridlock prevail and the limit not be moved from 14.3 trillion, once we meet it (which would be pretty soon) the ensuing scene would be akin to a bullet train going from full throttle to instant stop. Physics would indicate that the result wouldn’t be thrillingly enjoyable. Momentum and all of that.
The House Financial Services Subcommittee (sounds more important than they actually are) put forth a bill to establish a market for covered bonds in an effort to ween the mortgage market off of the governmentally-sponsored entities (Fannie and Freddie). So, bonds would be issued against the underlying pool of loans. Nothing new there. However the banks would be required to hold the assets on the balance sheets instead of unload them onto the GSEs. The banks (in theory) would have to be more responsible in the paper they write because if it’s crap, they gotta keep it.
Kick some responsibility their way, right? Wrong. You see, they would still be able to borrow against the value of the loans in their portfolio, allowing them to leverage up the place a la Lehman Brothers. And if the whole house of cards fell through, who’s ass is ultimately on the line? Why, none other than our very own FDIC backed by (drumroll please) the TAXPAYERS!!!!!
Dude, they are getting more and more circuitous in their approach to taking our cash. I distinctly preferred the gun-against-my-forehead-give-me-your-wallet method. At least it was honest and clear.
The funny thing about it is the bill’s proponents use the battle cry “It’s worked in Europe!” Yeah. Because Europe is doing super duper right now. Cough cough Spain/Portugal bailout cough lurking insolvency contagion cough cough.
To close this one, I have a good friend who is hosting a weekend fitness event. Want to get fed delicious nutritiousness by an on-site chef? Want to train with a Master Trainer? Want to get the fundamentals of health and wellness down pat? Want to turn beach season into everyone gawking at your awesome body season? Check out www.GetFitWeekend.com. Seriously. This guy is a beast.
And then BOOM, our special forces bust into a compound in Pakistan, get into a fire fight, kill Osama Bin Laden and nab his body (hopefully to attach some strings to his limbs and make a marionette-style video to send back to the terrorists). THAT is some serious American good news. Screw that guy and his dialysis machine.
It’s like when your grandparents wrapped up a book for Christmas and got you all disappointed before giving you that bike they’d been hiding. Dick move, maw-maw and pop-pop. But thanks for the bike.
According to the Mortgage Monitor, mortgage delinquencies have dropped to their lowest level since 2008. So, not trying to say that it’s a huge deal, but it is a leading indicator of our communal financial stabilization. And late last month New Home Sales came in at a 11.1% month-over-month gain. AND a weak dollar is spurring a spike in foreign real estate investment in the US.
Goodness, I need to sit down. I had almost forgotten what it was like to report three pieces of good news back to back. Invigorating.
The national debt limit ceiling is still a hotly contested topic up on Capitol Hill. Should gridlock prevail and the limit not be moved from 14.3 trillion, once we meet it (which would be pretty soon) the ensuing scene would be akin to a bullet train going from full throttle to instant stop. Physics would indicate that the result wouldn’t be thrillingly enjoyable. Momentum and all of that.
The House Financial Services Subcommittee (sounds more important than they actually are) put forth a bill to establish a market for covered bonds in an effort to ween the mortgage market off of the governmentally-sponsored entities (Fannie and Freddie). So, bonds would be issued against the underlying pool of loans. Nothing new there. However the banks would be required to hold the assets on the balance sheets instead of unload them onto the GSEs. The banks (in theory) would have to be more responsible in the paper they write because if it’s crap, they gotta keep it.
Kick some responsibility their way, right? Wrong. You see, they would still be able to borrow against the value of the loans in their portfolio, allowing them to leverage up the place a la Lehman Brothers. And if the whole house of cards fell through, who’s ass is ultimately on the line? Why, none other than our very own FDIC backed by (drumroll please) the TAXPAYERS!!!!!
Dude, they are getting more and more circuitous in their approach to taking our cash. I distinctly preferred the gun-against-my-forehead-give-me-your-wallet method. At least it was honest and clear.
The funny thing about it is the bill’s proponents use the battle cry “It’s worked in Europe!” Yeah. Because Europe is doing super duper right now. Cough cough Spain/Portugal bailout cough lurking insolvency contagion cough cough.
To close this one, I have a good friend who is hosting a weekend fitness event. Want to get fed delicious nutritiousness by an on-site chef? Want to train with a Master Trainer? Want to get the fundamentals of health and wellness down pat? Want to turn beach season into everyone gawking at your awesome body season? Check out www.GetFitWeekend.com. Seriously. This guy is a beast.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
The last 30 days in Lightning Round mode!
We’re gonna do this one at over-caffeinated chipmunk speed. And that’s super-fast. I know this because I have experimented accordingly. Don’t tell PETA. Seriously, they’re crazy.
Tim Geithner (our handsome and talented Treasury Secretary) has declared that the US has no risk of losing it’s AAA credit-rating. Standard and Poors (a significantly less politically-influenced institution) said we’ve got about a 1 in 3 chance of losing it. So, our “print money til’ the problem goes away” policy may have a slight flaw to it, according to honest people.
But who cares about honest peoples’ opinions anyway?
We’ve deployed armed drones to assist in the Libyan rebellion efforts, even though we’re not at war over there. Except we ARE. And for those that are counting, that’s war #4 right behind drugs, Afghanistan and Iraq. But you know what they say: 4th time’s a charm!
No one says that. Ever. Because that would be a terrible thing to say about war.
The governmental gridlock over budget cuts didn’t result in a shutdown! Yaaay! But somehow we’re all still angry at one another and bleeding money on a daily basis. ...Yay? Maybe if they shut down we could have not paid our “elected officials” for a week and have covered the entire budget deficit right there AND fixed poverty in this nation with their lost wages. But no, they continue to argue on Capitol Hill while that one guy at the intersection of Lee Road and I-4 continues to refuse the apple I try to give him and demands money. Evidently you can’t buy malt liquor with apples.
Gas prices suck. But it’s okay because Obama’s got a task force looking into it. They’ll solve all our problems. Or they’ll eat our tax dollars and laugh at us. Either way is fine, really.
On the subject of our Commander-in-Chief, we’re rapidly approaching election season. Has anyone else noticed that our mighty leader’s speeches have gotten a lot more… Obama-y? I don’t know what other adjective to use. They’re inspire-tastic. Make-me-wanna-tackle-the-world-errific.
And on the other side of the aisle, in C-I-C running all I’ve heard from is Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Really? Last election’s fail fodder and a joke candidate who just got roasted by Comedy Cen-tral? That’s all the GOP has to pitch? I thought y’all we’re rich. I think Steve Jobs with a new cyber-netic carapace would be electable.
Speaking of which, I got my 1st iPhone recently. It’s like I found religion, only way better. And with Angry Birds AND Fruit Ninja. I don’t even care that it is allegedly tracking my every move. I WANT it to. When I walk into Pita Pit, I want a coupon sent directly to my iPhone. That’s how I know SkyNet loves me and won’t murder me when the inevitable Robot Armageddon ensues. It’s like Mi¬nority Report sans the Scientology. Or Katie Holmes.
Mortgage interest rates remain low and housing season is upon us. There. I advertised to you. Finance houses through me. You’ll be glad you did. Or at least I will be glad you did. Most likely both of us. Believe it.
Tim Geithner (our handsome and talented Treasury Secretary) has declared that the US has no risk of losing it’s AAA credit-rating. Standard and Poors (a significantly less politically-influenced institution) said we’ve got about a 1 in 3 chance of losing it. So, our “print money til’ the problem goes away” policy may have a slight flaw to it, according to honest people.
But who cares about honest peoples’ opinions anyway?
We’ve deployed armed drones to assist in the Libyan rebellion efforts, even though we’re not at war over there. Except we ARE. And for those that are counting, that’s war #4 right behind drugs, Afghanistan and Iraq. But you know what they say: 4th time’s a charm!
No one says that. Ever. Because that would be a terrible thing to say about war.
The governmental gridlock over budget cuts didn’t result in a shutdown! Yaaay! But somehow we’re all still angry at one another and bleeding money on a daily basis. ...Yay? Maybe if they shut down we could have not paid our “elected officials” for a week and have covered the entire budget deficit right there AND fixed poverty in this nation with their lost wages. But no, they continue to argue on Capitol Hill while that one guy at the intersection of Lee Road and I-4 continues to refuse the apple I try to give him and demands money. Evidently you can’t buy malt liquor with apples.
Gas prices suck. But it’s okay because Obama’s got a task force looking into it. They’ll solve all our problems. Or they’ll eat our tax dollars and laugh at us. Either way is fine, really.
On the subject of our Commander-in-Chief, we’re rapidly approaching election season. Has anyone else noticed that our mighty leader’s speeches have gotten a lot more… Obama-y? I don’t know what other adjective to use. They’re inspire-tastic. Make-me-wanna-tackle-the-world-errific.
And on the other side of the aisle, in C-I-C running all I’ve heard from is Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Really? Last election’s fail fodder and a joke candidate who just got roasted by Comedy Cen-tral? That’s all the GOP has to pitch? I thought y’all we’re rich. I think Steve Jobs with a new cyber-netic carapace would be electable.
Speaking of which, I got my 1st iPhone recently. It’s like I found religion, only way better. And with Angry Birds AND Fruit Ninja. I don’t even care that it is allegedly tracking my every move. I WANT it to. When I walk into Pita Pit, I want a coupon sent directly to my iPhone. That’s how I know SkyNet loves me and won’t murder me when the inevitable Robot Armageddon ensues. It’s like Mi¬nority Report sans the Scientology. Or Katie Holmes.
Mortgage interest rates remain low and housing season is upon us. There. I advertised to you. Finance houses through me. You’ll be glad you did. Or at least I will be glad you did. Most likely both of us. Believe it.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
You know what they say about declaring unnecessary war: Third time's a charm!
Man, we've been at war so long that I had forgotten how fun it was to fire missiles at people.
I swear, every time I get to thinking that macro-economics are all poised to drive interest rates higher (which FYI they totally are) then some ridiculous, couldn’t-have-possibly-seen-it-coming thing happens to counter the obvious forces of nature at work.
Libya. Wonderful. I haven’t the foggiest idea as to why we suddenly decided to intervene on THIS particular country’s political uprising (definitely not the first case of human rights violations that the US or the UN has come across in recent history), but we did. So, despite the fact that a dozen other adjacent countries are going borderline bedlam, this one deserved about a cool billion in cruise missiles and No-Fly zone patrol. But what’s a billion in already-stressed military dollars between buddies, eh? The Iraq/Afghanistan troops can wear garbage bags over themselves instead of Kevlar vests. I hear it all works the same.
Take a second to really drink in how profoundly awful that last statement was.
And it’s extra sad when you consider that Al-Qaeda openly supports the Libyan rebels.
I literally got on a treadmill the day of the aforementioned be-missiling while CNN’s breaking news said that we’d fired 118 cruise missiles at last count. By the time I got off the treadmill, Fox News had breaking news that we’d fired 124 missiles to date. If I had run a full 10K, they probably would have blown Libya clear off the map. Thank God I am a terrible runner.
But you know what? I said “Okay, Middle Everywhere. Declare freedom and go nuts. At least I GET that.” Back to business as usual, right? Until GREAT GOOGLEY MOOGLEY Japan has gone from zero to Defcon 5 in record time. Earthquake + Tsunami + Radioactive Cataclysm = :-( <— Frowny face.
But seriously, if I had come at you a month ago and said that Mother Nature herself was going to per-sonally wreak unholy retribution on Japan and THAT is why mortgage rates would stay below 5%, you would probably have Baker Acted me for insanity. Unfortunately, I would have been dead-on.
And just for fun, Let’s check if is life slightly more sane within our borders. Is it? Noooooope.
AIG is offering to buy back the mortgage-backed securities it sold to the Federal Reserve during panic times at a profit to the taxpayers in a bold move since the 2008 meltdown. This is funny, because tax-payers already own 92% of AIG (remember that bailout thingy?) So congrats! You’re selling some-thing to yourself at a profit! Party! Let’s all get wasted!
Seriously though, I’m going to release a newsletter focused on housing statistics here shortly (as in the next couple of days) but there was simply too much dumbness happening out there for me not to bathe in it one good time. Thanks for indulging me. You’re good people. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
I swear, every time I get to thinking that macro-economics are all poised to drive interest rates higher (which FYI they totally are) then some ridiculous, couldn’t-have-possibly-seen-it-coming thing happens to counter the obvious forces of nature at work.
Libya. Wonderful. I haven’t the foggiest idea as to why we suddenly decided to intervene on THIS particular country’s political uprising (definitely not the first case of human rights violations that the US or the UN has come across in recent history), but we did. So, despite the fact that a dozen other adjacent countries are going borderline bedlam, this one deserved about a cool billion in cruise missiles and No-Fly zone patrol. But what’s a billion in already-stressed military dollars between buddies, eh? The Iraq/Afghanistan troops can wear garbage bags over themselves instead of Kevlar vests. I hear it all works the same.
Take a second to really drink in how profoundly awful that last statement was.
And it’s extra sad when you consider that Al-Qaeda openly supports the Libyan rebels.
I literally got on a treadmill the day of the aforementioned be-missiling while CNN’s breaking news said that we’d fired 118 cruise missiles at last count. By the time I got off the treadmill, Fox News had breaking news that we’d fired 124 missiles to date. If I had run a full 10K, they probably would have blown Libya clear off the map. Thank God I am a terrible runner.
But you know what? I said “Okay, Middle Everywhere. Declare freedom and go nuts. At least I GET that.” Back to business as usual, right? Until GREAT GOOGLEY MOOGLEY Japan has gone from zero to Defcon 5 in record time. Earthquake + Tsunami + Radioactive Cataclysm = :-( <— Frowny face.
But seriously, if I had come at you a month ago and said that Mother Nature herself was going to per-sonally wreak unholy retribution on Japan and THAT is why mortgage rates would stay below 5%, you would probably have Baker Acted me for insanity. Unfortunately, I would have been dead-on.
And just for fun, Let’s check if is life slightly more sane within our borders. Is it? Noooooope.
AIG is offering to buy back the mortgage-backed securities it sold to the Federal Reserve during panic times at a profit to the taxpayers in a bold move since the 2008 meltdown. This is funny, because tax-payers already own 92% of AIG (remember that bailout thingy?) So congrats! You’re selling some-thing to yourself at a profit! Party! Let’s all get wasted!
Seriously though, I’m going to release a newsletter focused on housing statistics here shortly (as in the next couple of days) but there was simply too much dumbness happening out there for me not to bathe in it one good time. Thanks for indulging me. You’re good people. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Everyone cool is going to be at the Wekiva Paint Out and now YOU CAN BE THERE TOO!!!
We’ll kick this one off with a blatant plug for the
Wekiva Paint Out!!!!!!
Yes, the next event I am working on is less than two weeks from now. It is on Friday 3/11/2011 from 6 to 9 PM over at the Wekiva Island (the same place I held the BBQ Battle last year). This Patron’s Gala will be showcasing local artists’ work in a fundraiser for the Wekiva Wilderness Trust whose purpose is the preservation and revitalization of the Wekiva River Basin.
Let me put it in simpler terms: $25.00 for all you can eat and all you can drink wine and beer. And it’s all going to help the environment. And EVERYONE loves the environment.
But seriously, I am counting on all of you coming out and joining me for this. A lot of people (myself included) have busted their tails in making this a premier event. There will be terrific networking and a good time had by all. Go to www.WekivaPaintOut.com and click in the top-right corner to buy tickets. Do it now. I am watching you.
Aaaaaaaand back to ranting about other stuff.
Anyone remember all that hullabaloo surrounding Egypt? Yeah, I don’t either. But LIBYA. That’s a story that’s got some pizzazz to it. Some crazy dictator waging war with hired mercenaries against his own people in a desperate attempt to maintain some shred of control over a revolting population?
I say we drop Arnold Schwarzenegger in the midst of it with a couple of chain guns and a camera crew and use the proceeds from the forthcoming movie to pay off our debt to China. Hasta la vista, Gaddafi.
But this tumult has gone a long way towards increasing the cost of oil, which is just super considering we are in the early stages of what is at best a tenuous economic recovery. Hopefully this aberration in fuel costs won’t last, but it has some economists worried about the inevitable negative effect on American consumers.
Treasury secretary Tim Geithner and his posse have proposed three strategies for winding down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the gargantuan governmentally sponsored version of Terri Schiavo if she was a mortgage securitization giant. I can’t say I blame them, as our banking system exploited the poor GSEs to near-death. The downside of this is that regardless of the choice they make, higher loan costs and larger down payments are unavoidable. So, if you’d like to get yourself into a home before rates AND loan costs go up, I would suggest you get the ol’ lead out.
Housing data lately has been like dating a drama queen. Terrific highs followed by terrific lows with no real semblance of logic connecting them. This is why I don’t beat you over the head with every positive headline that comes out. That would be one-sided and disingenuous of me to do so. It is the nature of a badly battered market in recovery. Aggregately speaking, home values are leveling out and rates are beginning to move upwards. You wanna talk about the nitty-gritty details? Give me a call and let’s schedule coffee. Chances are that it’s been too long since we’ve hung out anyway.
And seriously, go buy tickets to the Wekiva Paint Out. For every ticket you buy, an orphan gets an iPad and a puppy. Don’t ask how. Just go do it. For the orphans. And the environment.
Wekiva Paint Out!!!!!!
Yes, the next event I am working on is less than two weeks from now. It is on Friday 3/11/2011 from 6 to 9 PM over at the Wekiva Island (the same place I held the BBQ Battle last year). This Patron’s Gala will be showcasing local artists’ work in a fundraiser for the Wekiva Wilderness Trust whose purpose is the preservation and revitalization of the Wekiva River Basin.
Let me put it in simpler terms: $25.00 for all you can eat and all you can drink wine and beer. And it’s all going to help the environment. And EVERYONE loves the environment.
But seriously, I am counting on all of you coming out and joining me for this. A lot of people (myself included) have busted their tails in making this a premier event. There will be terrific networking and a good time had by all. Go to www.WekivaPaintOut.com and click in the top-right corner to buy tickets. Do it now. I am watching you.
Aaaaaaaand back to ranting about other stuff.
Anyone remember all that hullabaloo surrounding Egypt? Yeah, I don’t either. But LIBYA. That’s a story that’s got some pizzazz to it. Some crazy dictator waging war with hired mercenaries against his own people in a desperate attempt to maintain some shred of control over a revolting population?
I say we drop Arnold Schwarzenegger in the midst of it with a couple of chain guns and a camera crew and use the proceeds from the forthcoming movie to pay off our debt to China. Hasta la vista, Gaddafi.
But this tumult has gone a long way towards increasing the cost of oil, which is just super considering we are in the early stages of what is at best a tenuous economic recovery. Hopefully this aberration in fuel costs won’t last, but it has some economists worried about the inevitable negative effect on American consumers.
Treasury secretary Tim Geithner and his posse have proposed three strategies for winding down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the gargantuan governmentally sponsored version of Terri Schiavo if she was a mortgage securitization giant. I can’t say I blame them, as our banking system exploited the poor GSEs to near-death. The downside of this is that regardless of the choice they make, higher loan costs and larger down payments are unavoidable. So, if you’d like to get yourself into a home before rates AND loan costs go up, I would suggest you get the ol’ lead out.
Housing data lately has been like dating a drama queen. Terrific highs followed by terrific lows with no real semblance of logic connecting them. This is why I don’t beat you over the head with every positive headline that comes out. That would be one-sided and disingenuous of me to do so. It is the nature of a badly battered market in recovery. Aggregately speaking, home values are leveling out and rates are beginning to move upwards. You wanna talk about the nitty-gritty details? Give me a call and let’s schedule coffee. Chances are that it’s been too long since we’ve hung out anyway.
And seriously, go buy tickets to the Wekiva Paint Out. For every ticket you buy, an orphan gets an iPad and a puppy. Don’t ask how. Just go do it. For the orphans. And the environment.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Unemployment vs. Inflation is like Chuck Norris vs. a Velociraptor
Jobs, jobs, jobs. Job creation is the big concern for the United States right now. With it, a chain reaction fixes everything. People start spending more, home prices start to rise again as demand increases, wealth returns to the American public, cherubs dance naked in the streets whilst strumming harps. Without it, things stay right about where they’re at in Sucktown.
So, everyone is excited to hear our national unemployment rate dropped another 0.4% to 9.0%, right? And we only created 36,000 jobs to do it! MAN are we efficient.
Yeah? YEAH? Really?!?
No, honestly this isn’t great. The decrease in the unemployment rate is due to many would-be job seekers either giving up entirely or just giving up temporarily because of the massive winter storm that hit the north (Yes Florida. That did happen. Wasn’t just a massive coincidence of Northerners complaining on Facebook.). We need to create about 125,000 jobs per month to even keep pace with the growth of the labor force. And from 2007-2008 we lost in the neighborhood of 8,750,000 jobs.
Job creation FAIL.
But that hasn’t stopped everyone (me included) from freaking out about inflation. Prices on food and commodities have started creeping upward. Now, depending on what political agenda you’re pushing, you can either call that an expansion of emerging markets and a general increase in worldwide demand ooooooooooorrrrrrrr you can call it the inevitable and impending inflation from too much money sloshing around in the economy.
As is my tendency, I fall somewhere in the middle.
Fact of the matter is Big Ben Bernanke is going to stay the course of low benchmark rates and accommodative asset purchase programs. Imagine, if you would, a giant spring: my awesome metaphor for rate movement. The Fed buying treasuries acts as pressure from above, pushing the spring down and rates lower. But the perception of inflation acts as a pressure from below. So, no matter how hard the Fed pushes down, once the inflation genie is out of the bottle they just won’t have the muscle to keep rates down. Because genies are super-strong. Did you SEE Aladdin? That blue dude was jacked.
Ironically enough, Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh recently announced his resignation. He is a well-known inflation-hawk (meaning he’s more concerned for subduing inflation than creating jobs). Kinda unsettling in the wake of this big debate.
We’ve already seen the results bleed into mortgage rates. As measured by Freddie Mac’s average 30 year fixed rate, it has risen from 4.30% in November to 4.76% in January. And the trend has continued into February so far. On the flip-side of the coin, existing home sales rocketed forward which is a bright spot.
And Egypt. Pfffft. That situation is so FUBAR I’m just not touching it.
So, everyone is excited to hear our national unemployment rate dropped another 0.4% to 9.0%, right? And we only created 36,000 jobs to do it! MAN are we efficient.
Yeah? YEAH? Really?!?
No, honestly this isn’t great. The decrease in the unemployment rate is due to many would-be job seekers either giving up entirely or just giving up temporarily because of the massive winter storm that hit the north (Yes Florida. That did happen. Wasn’t just a massive coincidence of Northerners complaining on Facebook.). We need to create about 125,000 jobs per month to even keep pace with the growth of the labor force. And from 2007-2008 we lost in the neighborhood of 8,750,000 jobs.
Job creation FAIL.
But that hasn’t stopped everyone (me included) from freaking out about inflation. Prices on food and commodities have started creeping upward. Now, depending on what political agenda you’re pushing, you can either call that an expansion of emerging markets and a general increase in worldwide demand ooooooooooorrrrrrrr you can call it the inevitable and impending inflation from too much money sloshing around in the economy.
As is my tendency, I fall somewhere in the middle.
Fact of the matter is Big Ben Bernanke is going to stay the course of low benchmark rates and accommodative asset purchase programs. Imagine, if you would, a giant spring: my awesome metaphor for rate movement. The Fed buying treasuries acts as pressure from above, pushing the spring down and rates lower. But the perception of inflation acts as a pressure from below. So, no matter how hard the Fed pushes down, once the inflation genie is out of the bottle they just won’t have the muscle to keep rates down. Because genies are super-strong. Did you SEE Aladdin? That blue dude was jacked.
Ironically enough, Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh recently announced his resignation. He is a well-known inflation-hawk (meaning he’s more concerned for subduing inflation than creating jobs). Kinda unsettling in the wake of this big debate.
We’ve already seen the results bleed into mortgage rates. As measured by Freddie Mac’s average 30 year fixed rate, it has risen from 4.30% in November to 4.76% in January. And the trend has continued into February so far. On the flip-side of the coin, existing home sales rocketed forward which is a bright spot.
And Egypt. Pfffft. That situation is so FUBAR I’m just not touching it.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Ni hao, Jintao!!!
It’s funny, because only parents of young children got the joke in the title.
Let’s kick this one off by staring straight at the elephant in the room: America has just hosted the President of China, Hu Jintao. We enjoyed what a lot of news networks would like to refer to as “successful negotiations.” I am more of the opinion that it was an overall “epic fail.”
Lemme break it down. We hammered out 45 billion in trade agreements, which sounds a lot bigger than it actually is. When we brought up pertinent issues like, oh, I don’t know, flagrant currency manipulations and human rights violations, we were promptly and eloquently told to STFU and mind our own damn business by Hu (and if I need to explain that abbreviation, you don’t need to know what it means.) Yeah. So, the whole “we’re the only existing superpower on this floating rock” deal might be coming to a rapid conclusion.
As a quick aside, CNBC’s label for Hu Jintao’s visit is “The Next Cold War.” Really CNBC? Freakin’ really? I realize there are widespread consequences of our potential trade war, but really?? We aren’t threatening each other with imminent nuclear annihilation. It’s a LITTLE BIT different.
I’ve always blabbered a lot about China/US relations, but you’re gonna hear a lot more of it from me because it is becoming increasingly important. Let’s take, for example, the fact that they are raising their benchmark interest rates. Given the tangled web of financial ties we have with China, exactly how long do you think it will be before we start jacking our rates up as well? And how long after that will mortgage rates start to rise? Hmmmmm…
And to further bolster that argument, headline inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) came in at a comparably hot +0.5%. Many would argue that this is as good a reason as any to start thinking about curtailing our domestic easy-money policies. And just for funsies, let’s stack on top of that an existing home sales number that leapt upwards by 12.3% in December (which is normally a crappy time of year for home sales). Anyone doubting that our economy is in the early stages of a robust recovery? Hm? Anyone? Bueller? Nah, I didn’t think so.
Coming from the inside of the housing industry, I say that we’ll take any positive news we can muster.
Speaking of housing, there is talk on the Hill about privatizing the entire mortgage market and eliminating Fannie and Freddie. That would be akin to eliminating the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and just saying that the rivers of half the world can just flow somewhere else. Should work out great. Note the sarcasm. The fact of the matter is that SOMETHING is gonna happen. What exactly that is nobody knows yet. And that brings about uncertainty. And uncertainty brings about more hedging of bets, which is not exactly something we need to encourage mortgage bond investors to do right this second.
While I’m ranting, let me hit you with some numbers. Total licensed mortgage brokers in Florida: 42,666. Total number that applied to continue breaking people’s mortgages as of Dec 1st: 10,308. Ha ha. My competition is stupid and procrastinates. BTW, deadline was December 31st. From a purely selfish perspective, it’s kinda nice to be one of the last few men standing.
The FBI took time off from investigating shoddy mortgages to wreak holy war on the mob in New York, arresting 127 mobsters (as of the last article I saw about it) in one fell swoop. Bravo FBI. It’s good to be reminded that my industry isn’t the only one that does damage to this country.
Evidently Donald Trump is heavily considering running for president in 2012. I can only hope he does a reality show to choose his Vice-president. Mayhaps he can combine reality shows with Sarah Palin and release 10 candidates into the Alaskan wilderness whilst she methodically hunts them down.
Too far? Yeah, too far. Understood. But a fun thought nonetheless.
Let’s kick this one off by staring straight at the elephant in the room: America has just hosted the President of China, Hu Jintao. We enjoyed what a lot of news networks would like to refer to as “successful negotiations.” I am more of the opinion that it was an overall “epic fail.”
Lemme break it down. We hammered out 45 billion in trade agreements, which sounds a lot bigger than it actually is. When we brought up pertinent issues like, oh, I don’t know, flagrant currency manipulations and human rights violations, we were promptly and eloquently told to STFU and mind our own damn business by Hu (and if I need to explain that abbreviation, you don’t need to know what it means.) Yeah. So, the whole “we’re the only existing superpower on this floating rock” deal might be coming to a rapid conclusion.
As a quick aside, CNBC’s label for Hu Jintao’s visit is “The Next Cold War.” Really CNBC? Freakin’ really? I realize there are widespread consequences of our potential trade war, but really?? We aren’t threatening each other with imminent nuclear annihilation. It’s a LITTLE BIT different.
I’ve always blabbered a lot about China/US relations, but you’re gonna hear a lot more of it from me because it is becoming increasingly important. Let’s take, for example, the fact that they are raising their benchmark interest rates. Given the tangled web of financial ties we have with China, exactly how long do you think it will be before we start jacking our rates up as well? And how long after that will mortgage rates start to rise? Hmmmmm…
And to further bolster that argument, headline inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) came in at a comparably hot +0.5%. Many would argue that this is as good a reason as any to start thinking about curtailing our domestic easy-money policies. And just for funsies, let’s stack on top of that an existing home sales number that leapt upwards by 12.3% in December (which is normally a crappy time of year for home sales). Anyone doubting that our economy is in the early stages of a robust recovery? Hm? Anyone? Bueller? Nah, I didn’t think so.
Coming from the inside of the housing industry, I say that we’ll take any positive news we can muster.
Speaking of housing, there is talk on the Hill about privatizing the entire mortgage market and eliminating Fannie and Freddie. That would be akin to eliminating the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and just saying that the rivers of half the world can just flow somewhere else. Should work out great. Note the sarcasm. The fact of the matter is that SOMETHING is gonna happen. What exactly that is nobody knows yet. And that brings about uncertainty. And uncertainty brings about more hedging of bets, which is not exactly something we need to encourage mortgage bond investors to do right this second.
While I’m ranting, let me hit you with some numbers. Total licensed mortgage brokers in Florida: 42,666. Total number that applied to continue breaking people’s mortgages as of Dec 1st: 10,308. Ha ha. My competition is stupid and procrastinates. BTW, deadline was December 31st. From a purely selfish perspective, it’s kinda nice to be one of the last few men standing.
The FBI took time off from investigating shoddy mortgages to wreak holy war on the mob in New York, arresting 127 mobsters (as of the last article I saw about it) in one fell swoop. Bravo FBI. It’s good to be reminded that my industry isn’t the only one that does damage to this country.
Evidently Donald Trump is heavily considering running for president in 2012. I can only hope he does a reality show to choose his Vice-president. Mayhaps he can combine reality shows with Sarah Palin and release 10 candidates into the Alaskan wilderness whilst she methodically hunts them down.
Too far? Yeah, too far. Understood. But a fun thought nonetheless.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
2011 is the year of the Rabbit, so eyes open for Elmer Fudd
Well, here we are. 2011. The packages have been torn open, enjoyed, and are now all but forgotten. All of us are about 10 pounds heavier. The hangover from New Years Eve has faded, but the shame of your actions remains. And since we’re about a week into the year, about 50% of all New Year’s reso-lutions have been tossed aside.
Ahh, new beginnings. So how are we starting this year out? Let’s have us a look-see at some of the highlights in bullet-point format…
- John Boehner just succeeded Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, so now he has a larger platform to ‘not accept compromise’ from.
- China hiked interest rates in a preliminary attempt to slow down their economy’s break-neck growth pace, which surprised absolutely nobody (probably why this is the first time most of you are hearing about it.)
- Mortgage interest rates (per the average 30 year fixed) have floated up to the high 4’s - low 5’s range from the historical lows from whence they came and most analysts say that the rates we saw in 2010 are gone until Haley’s Comet comes back around.
- The economic recovery is not sufficient to alter the Federal Reserve’s plans to shovel out 600 billion more in treasury bond purchases in their debt-riddled scheme to keep rates low and growth moving.
- Don’t ask, don’t tell was overturned (although it will inevitably end up in the bottomless void of ap-pellate courts). Regardless of your feelings on the matter, you’ve gotta admit that it would be amus-ingly ironic for some dude in a fishnet A-shirt to gun down a terrorist and refer to the experience as “fabulous”.
So, things are still pretty screwy out there. From my observation, the news reports on the economy have gotten even more random. Half of the pundits out there say that everything is going to hell and you should invest in freeze-dried food, gold and guns and sit on your front porch awaiting the zombie apocalypse. Others say that everything is going to rally and you are either gonna get ridiculously rich in the process or be smashed by uncontrollable hyper-inflation.
Know what I think? Sensationalism makes for good headlines and sells ad space. Period.
The fact of the matter is that a lot of economic metrics are balancing out. Unemployment, while ad-mittedly high, is steady. Exports are rising. Stocks have done well and bonds have seen rates move upwards as a result. All natural by-products of a protracted, gruelingly long recovery that is underway. We are going to experience bumps in the road going forward, no doubt. But the trajectory I am ob-serving gives me great cause for optimism. Good old fashioned boring optimism.
Seriously, if I believed that this whole economy is as fragile as a soufflé at a heavy metal concert (take a moment for that metaphor to sink in) then I wouldn’t be in mortgage origination, would I?
And to close my first release of the year, I would like to announce that my wife and I are going to try to have our first child this year. Giggity. So expect me to be barking up your tree for referrals of people you know buying or refinancing homes. Because it’s not about me anymore: it’s about the baby.
Here’s to a rockin’ 2011, y’all!
Ahh, new beginnings. So how are we starting this year out? Let’s have us a look-see at some of the highlights in bullet-point format…
- John Boehner just succeeded Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, so now he has a larger platform to ‘not accept compromise’ from.
- China hiked interest rates in a preliminary attempt to slow down their economy’s break-neck growth pace, which surprised absolutely nobody (probably why this is the first time most of you are hearing about it.)
- Mortgage interest rates (per the average 30 year fixed) have floated up to the high 4’s - low 5’s range from the historical lows from whence they came and most analysts say that the rates we saw in 2010 are gone until Haley’s Comet comes back around.
- The economic recovery is not sufficient to alter the Federal Reserve’s plans to shovel out 600 billion more in treasury bond purchases in their debt-riddled scheme to keep rates low and growth moving.
- Don’t ask, don’t tell was overturned (although it will inevitably end up in the bottomless void of ap-pellate courts). Regardless of your feelings on the matter, you’ve gotta admit that it would be amus-ingly ironic for some dude in a fishnet A-shirt to gun down a terrorist and refer to the experience as “fabulous”.
So, things are still pretty screwy out there. From my observation, the news reports on the economy have gotten even more random. Half of the pundits out there say that everything is going to hell and you should invest in freeze-dried food, gold and guns and sit on your front porch awaiting the zombie apocalypse. Others say that everything is going to rally and you are either gonna get ridiculously rich in the process or be smashed by uncontrollable hyper-inflation.
Know what I think? Sensationalism makes for good headlines and sells ad space. Period.
The fact of the matter is that a lot of economic metrics are balancing out. Unemployment, while ad-mittedly high, is steady. Exports are rising. Stocks have done well and bonds have seen rates move upwards as a result. All natural by-products of a protracted, gruelingly long recovery that is underway. We are going to experience bumps in the road going forward, no doubt. But the trajectory I am ob-serving gives me great cause for optimism. Good old fashioned boring optimism.
Seriously, if I believed that this whole economy is as fragile as a soufflé at a heavy metal concert (take a moment for that metaphor to sink in) then I wouldn’t be in mortgage origination, would I?
And to close my first release of the year, I would like to announce that my wife and I are going to try to have our first child this year. Giggity. So expect me to be barking up your tree for referrals of people you know buying or refinancing homes. Because it’s not about me anymore: it’s about the baby.
Here’s to a rockin’ 2011, y’all!
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