I'd like to open this one up with a word of thanks to you. I'll spare you the details, but recently my family ran into a situation that had the potential to go significantly more sideways than it did, and it put me in that post-apocalyptic overly-pensive mode that got me all doughy inside. Come January 2014 it'll've been a full decade that I have been professionally slinging crippling sums of home-ownership debt to people just like you. And a large part of that success is owed to all of you with your personal business, encouragement, referrals, love and friendship.
But mainly just your personal business and referrals. Keep that stuff coming. Friendship is nice, but for some reason Verizon has a problem with me trying to use pictures of me hugging my iPhone to pay my cell phone bill.
And yes, I used "it'll've" because I am a southerner and we make ridiculous contractions. Deal wit' it, ch'y'all.
Sappy stuff over. I've been lazy and I've got some serious ground to cover. Let's get to it.
Being a native Floridian, I can't help but start with George Zimmerman's acquittal. That definitely helped me divide my Facebook friends into two groups: Those who constantly discussed the trial while it was going on (and for two weeks afterwards) and Those who are still my Facebook friends.
Edward Snowden blew the lid off of the NSA's massive surveillance state, hauled ass from country to country, recently got asylum from Russia (who we CERTAINLY could use some additional tension with because why not?), and basically made the American government look like a bunch of dumbasses. Meanwhile, the UK is working towards blocking internet porn. I don't know about you guys, but I think we got the better end of that deal.
Speaking of the UK, baby-junior-who-gives-a-damn got born to Kate Middleton and the better looking of the two princes. Everyone in the British media hailed Kate as "brilliant" (which is a real compliment if Harry Potter is any indication) because her first born is a son. Because evidently England has yet to accept Mendelian genetics as truth and instead thinks that Kate somehow chose to birth a son.
...awesome.
Asiana Flight 214 crash-landed in San Francisco, which nobody loved long time.
DOMA got overturned, marking a historic landmark in the movement toward marriage equality. Thus far none of my neighbors have married any goats which leads me to believe that Fox News sold me on a false bill of goods concerning the inevitable dystopian repercussions of this Supreme Court verdict and that my $50,000 investment in the web start-up goatlovers.com was likely a poor choice.
And on the subject of poor choices, Russia has taken an open and institutional anti-gay stance right before they are scheduled to host the 2014 Winter Olympics, meaning that the figure skating competition is going to lose about half of its power players. Because the other half are women.
Iran's new president Hassan Rouhani, who rallied for "rationality and moderation" has been voted in to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. "Death to America" was nowhere in his inauguration speech so, you know, at least that's encouraging.
Home values have increased sharply enough to draw a ton of flippers back into the market. Recent Case-Schiller home price index readings tell the story best, clocking in at a whopping 12.1% appreciation year over year for their 20-city index. Do I think that now would be the time to drunkenly run outside firing a gun randomly into the air screaming "THE GOOD TIMES HAVE RETURNED!!!" while nude? Probably not. I mean, let's not rule anything out though.
It does however lead me to believe that the home valuation rebound is going to be a very bumpy ride. Lots of high highs and low lows ahead. But I don't think I can find one of you out there that can look me in the eye and tell me homes won't have higher value five years from now than they do presently. And that, ladies and gentlemen, represents a consensus that home values will trend upwards once again.
You like how I just assumed all of you agree with me and then called it a consensus? Abusive logic is fun.
Rates are headed up. That is happening. Already's started. It is purely an issue of how quickly and at what level of volatility. Based on the aggregated predictions of most noted experts (at least the ones I follow) we have already surpassed the rate increases that were predicted for 2013. The entire process has been largely fear-driven, sophomoric choppiness. 'Shoot first and ask questions later' kind of attitudes. Meanwhile, stocks seem to have blown past all-time highs with a quiet yawn.
If you ask me, something about that whole equation doesn't quite sit right.
BOOOOOM!!! Left you with a CLIFFHANGER.
