Come hither kitten: Let us pontificate our current state of being.
EVERYTHING IS AWESOME! American gross domestic product (a.k.a. the economy) was upwardly revised to show growth of 2.7% annualized in the third quarter. Initial jobless claims dropped by 23,000 last week. Existing home sales jumped in October to a 4.79 million annualized rate. The Case-Schiller home price index showed national home prices increased 3.6% year over year and 2.2% quarter over quarter. Trulia’s housing market barometer hit a new post-crisis high in September. BUST OUT THE CHAMPAGNE! VICTORY ORGIES IN THE STREETS!
EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE! New home sales fell 0.3%. The mighty phantom tax (which allows any forgiven debt from a short sale to be taxed as income) is going to rear it’s ugly head once more in 2013. Everyone’s freaking out about a new wave of Euro-zone defaults at are quite possibly approaching soon. Paris Hilton teamed up with Little Wayne to produce a song. I’m fairly certain that is one of the horsemen of the apocalypse right there. TO THE BOMB SHELTERS! SHOOT ANYTHING THAT MOVES!
The screwy part is that everything there is true. As we Americans bask in the sordid aftermath of our most societally polarizing of political rituals (fancy way of saying election) there is plenty of data to support either side of the “Are home prices finally coming back???” debate.
Listen. I don’t give even half a crap about how pleased you are or aren’t about this election. I am a believer that regardless of who took the oval office it would have very VERY little to do with the open market forces that are driving our current housing market, at least in the short term.
Knowing my highly opinionated audience, I imagine I just kung-fu kicked a hornet’s nest. But the point remains. The pendulum SEEMS to be swinging back to a more balanced, healthy market. Things got way too loose, the economy went to hell, then things got way too tight. Hopefully we’re feeling out a healthy medium here. Lord only knows there’s a ton of government intervention and artificial forces that will need to be dealt with sooner or later, but the immediate future seems (in my opinion) promising. At least not as bleak as recent history would suggest.
I ripped a quote from CNBC because, well, I’ve been saying the same stuff all along. But now a credible news network said it. So here is a corporate entity parroting my thoughts:
Home buyers need to be more focused on the mortgage process in the current environment where lenders and banking regulators are being risk averse. Shopping for competitive mortgage terms is a good idea, but it may be more important to find a bank that is willing to work with you given your credit history.
Translation: Banks are dicks right now and I’m a scrappy broker who doesn’t quit hammering until stuff gets done. I also get my clients awesome deals. Boo-yah. I got chuckin’ testimonials, Farley.
But enough about how great I am and how you should definitely tell anyone who owns a home or wants to buy one that you know about me…
This whole fiscal cliff issue remains unresolved. For those of you who haven’t read my previous references to this phenomenon (and shame on you for not reading and memorizing everything I write), the fiscal cliff is a series of tax cuts and program spending allocations that are set to sunset when the ball drops in Times Square. Basically, if we hit 2013 and nothing is done about it, gravity will be doubled for everyone.
That’s not exactly what’s going to happen, but I think it’s a pretty neat metaphor and I’m going with it. Things are going to be suddenly slowed down is what I’m stabbing at. And that would be no bueno.
So, despite the fact that compromise seems to be the only path away from ruin, both political parties seem quite content with their respective uncompromising terms of engagement. It’s refreshing to know that so much of our tax money goes to pay a bunch of old guys to represent our differences virulently and effectively accomplish nothing.
In related news, I’m asking for a toaster and a bathtub for Christmas.
But we all know how this story will end: Lots of re-election-friendly voter-base-appealing banter and then a buzzer beater solution that doesn’t necessarily solve, but effectively staves off the harsh consequences of the cliff. And a great big smile as they wish us all a Happy New Year.
Just WATCH it happen. So delightfully predictable.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
It's over. Can we all stop yelling at each other now? Please?
History has been made. I will discuss it with a “Choose Your Own Adventure” paragraph using the key democrat/republican/person-like-me-who-is-just-glad-this-whole-damnable-fiasco-is-over.
Ready? You betcha you’re ready.
What an incredibly incredible/unfortunate/long and boring day in the history of America November 6th was! Barack nothing additional/HUSSEIN/el presidente Obama has been re-elected in a landslide/completely illegitimate and questionable/pretty darn close vote. I have spent all day today cavorting in the streets naked calling my psychic on my brand new completely free Obama-phone whilst sipping champagne and supporting gay marriage for pot growers who own abortion clinics/frantically calling my financial advisor and having all of my assets shifted overseas in fear of our inevitable economic collapse whilst loudly proclaiming said apocalyptic opinions on Facebook/living my life normally.
Life goes on, as they say. The whole ordeal gobbled up two-billion dollars in campaign spending. And I can think of two-billion better ways of spending that money than the circus side-show that was this electoral season. FINALLY we can make more room for Christmas commercials. I want to be ceaselessly bombarded with savings, not attack ads.
Carl Rove enjoyed a 20 minute on-air joyride into the inky darkness of madness as the only man in America who didn’t accept Obama’s victory when it became official. That was pretty fun to watch. Guess you had to be there. Orrrrr you need to have access to YouTube, because it’s all over YouTube.
Donald Trump also seemed to come a tad unglued, as he attempted to begin a second American Revolution from the comfort of his Twitter feed. The ‘great and disturbing injustice’ of our election he felt to be worthy of vigilante justice.
Frankly, if I am going to follow a leader against my own government I would want to know that aforementioned leader had never allowed Arsenio Hall, Joan Rivers and Piers Morgan to win anything ever.
So the northeast has had a pretty rough ride, eh? A one-two punch of Hurricane Sandy and a Nor’Easter has truly taken a toll. It went so far as to close the stock market for two days, which is the first time that’s happened since 1985. In my opinion, this is just the beginning of the holy retribution to be rained down by heaven to cleanse the earth of Snooki’s offspring. But I really feel bad for all those poor people in the crossfire.
Disney is buying LucasFilm for a little over 4 billion. Hopefully we see a crossover come from this deal. I for one would love to see a lightsaber duel between Goofy and Pluto. One dog owning another dog? I don’t think so. Pluto’s been kept down by the man for entirely too long.
Goofy is supposed to be a dog, right? I could never really tell.
I’m sure a bunch of you have heard that if Obama won, it would be bad for stocks and if Romney won it would be good for stocks. Lo and behold, on Obama’s first day after the election, the Dow drops over 300 points. Is it that Obama is just going to ruin business in this country?
In the long-term, that very well may become the debate. But this drop isn’t indicative of the long-term: it’s indicative of the short-term. Honestly, investors don’t care who’s at the helm as long as they can profit from it. So why the stock swoon?
The ‘fiscal cliff’ of expiring tax cuts that looms at the close of 2012. You see, if Romney won it was perceived that he would be able to clear whatever measures he needed to through his majority held Congress to avoid the cliff. However with Obama still running the show, political deadlock will potentially drive us right over the edge.
And who should come galloping up on a white horse in shiny armor to save the day? Why, none other than the handsome Speaker of the House John Boehner (whose name I consistently mispronounce for cheap laughs) with an offer to discuss higher taxes “under the right conditions”. I am pleased to see the pissing match seems to be subsiding and the “Seriously guys, this will suck for all of us if we allow this tax sunset to happen” talks have begun.
Housing? Yeah, it’s doing super. We’ll discuss it next time. You should buy some between now and then. Purely because I told you to.
Ready? You betcha you’re ready.
What an incredibly incredible/unfortunate/long and boring day in the history of America November 6th was! Barack nothing additional/HUSSEIN/el presidente Obama has been re-elected in a landslide/completely illegitimate and questionable/pretty darn close vote. I have spent all day today cavorting in the streets naked calling my psychic on my brand new completely free Obama-phone whilst sipping champagne and supporting gay marriage for pot growers who own abortion clinics/frantically calling my financial advisor and having all of my assets shifted overseas in fear of our inevitable economic collapse whilst loudly proclaiming said apocalyptic opinions on Facebook/living my life normally.
Life goes on, as they say. The whole ordeal gobbled up two-billion dollars in campaign spending. And I can think of two-billion better ways of spending that money than the circus side-show that was this electoral season. FINALLY we can make more room for Christmas commercials. I want to be ceaselessly bombarded with savings, not attack ads.
Carl Rove enjoyed a 20 minute on-air joyride into the inky darkness of madness as the only man in America who didn’t accept Obama’s victory when it became official. That was pretty fun to watch. Guess you had to be there. Orrrrr you need to have access to YouTube, because it’s all over YouTube.
Donald Trump also seemed to come a tad unglued, as he attempted to begin a second American Revolution from the comfort of his Twitter feed. The ‘great and disturbing injustice’ of our election he felt to be worthy of vigilante justice.
Frankly, if I am going to follow a leader against my own government I would want to know that aforementioned leader had never allowed Arsenio Hall, Joan Rivers and Piers Morgan to win anything ever.
So the northeast has had a pretty rough ride, eh? A one-two punch of Hurricane Sandy and a Nor’Easter has truly taken a toll. It went so far as to close the stock market for two days, which is the first time that’s happened since 1985. In my opinion, this is just the beginning of the holy retribution to be rained down by heaven to cleanse the earth of Snooki’s offspring. But I really feel bad for all those poor people in the crossfire.
Disney is buying LucasFilm for a little over 4 billion. Hopefully we see a crossover come from this deal. I for one would love to see a lightsaber duel between Goofy and Pluto. One dog owning another dog? I don’t think so. Pluto’s been kept down by the man for entirely too long.
Goofy is supposed to be a dog, right? I could never really tell.
I’m sure a bunch of you have heard that if Obama won, it would be bad for stocks and if Romney won it would be good for stocks. Lo and behold, on Obama’s first day after the election, the Dow drops over 300 points. Is it that Obama is just going to ruin business in this country?
In the long-term, that very well may become the debate. But this drop isn’t indicative of the long-term: it’s indicative of the short-term. Honestly, investors don’t care who’s at the helm as long as they can profit from it. So why the stock swoon?
The ‘fiscal cliff’ of expiring tax cuts that looms at the close of 2012. You see, if Romney won it was perceived that he would be able to clear whatever measures he needed to through his majority held Congress to avoid the cliff. However with Obama still running the show, political deadlock will potentially drive us right over the edge.
And who should come galloping up on a white horse in shiny armor to save the day? Why, none other than the handsome Speaker of the House John Boehner (whose name I consistently mispronounce for cheap laughs) with an offer to discuss higher taxes “under the right conditions”. I am pleased to see the pissing match seems to be subsiding and the “Seriously guys, this will suck for all of us if we allow this tax sunset to happen” talks have begun.
Housing? Yeah, it’s doing super. We’ll discuss it next time. You should buy some between now and then. Purely because I told you to.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
To Q.E. Infinity and Beyond!
Yikes. Been a while. Did you miss me? I know I missed me.
I had that thought where I felt I really had to put together a barn-burner in this newsletter since I’ve slacked so bad the past month and a half. Then I had some bourbon and had that thought where I just wanted to write the same self-centered, politically incorrect, offensive, poorly edited drivel that I always do. And you will love me for it.
Well, I had a kid. Honestly, Erin did most of the work. And it looked painful. Nevertheless, the fruit of my loins has been unleashed upon this world. Liam Augustine Whiteside. Hide your 0-3 month old daughters. Our doctor described him as a “Moose”, I jest you not. But yeah, he’s great. When he’s not screaming. Which is a lot.
iPhone 5 was recently released. The major change on this model? It’s longer. Apparently in the wake of Steve Jobs’ illustrious career and recent passing, Apple’s new CEO Tim Cook has an inferiority complex and is trying to prove something. With extra length. Kiiiiiiinda suggestive if you ask me.
Congress still hasn’t accomplished jack towards solving the Doomsday scenario that is the “fiscal cliff” that looms at the tail-end of this year. Basically, the Bush tax cuts expire along with a whole bunch of other fiscal policy crap that will result in the government taxing the fillings straight out of your teeth. So, of course the gravity of the economic consequences has created an apt hotbed for political angst to fester with absolutely nothing getting done, especially considering it’s an election year.
Have you ever seen Wile E Coyote handle a cliff well? Me neither. Soon that’ll be us taxpayers going “AAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaa….“
And speaking of elections, we’re now half-way through our presidential debate season (which I imagine makes you completely forget about football season) with Biden and Ryan going mano-a-mano after Romney flexed his political swag in his first round against the Commander-in-Chief. The entire experience of all the political banter has led me inexorably to one conclusion:
We need to ban 24-hour news. All of it. Gone. There is nothing that requires this kind of friggin’ attention. A live-time undecided voters line chart? Screw that. Especially when factual validity is waaaaaaay in the back-seat to ’zingers’ and power phrases. What. The. Hell. America.
Although I am very pleased to see Big Bird taking his rightful place in the center of American Politico. I knew from a very young age that he would ultimately be an influential force in the leadership of this country. I also knew that stop signs were red and had 8 sides because of him. I love that guy.
The much anticipated third round of quantitative easing has been implemented by the Federal Reserve, instantly earning the title “Q.E.Infinity”. You see, in order to please both those concerned with growth and those concerned with the prospect of inflation, they tied the ongoing purchase of mortgage-backed securities to the unemployment rate, saying they’ll consider amping back the program once we’re south of 7% unemployment.
So, as a direct beneficiary of this program (because low rates makes me look like a rock star) I want to thank all of you for paying your taxes. Because that’s what we’re using to keep rates down. That and borrowed Chinese funds. Mainly borrowed Chinese funds. But thanks for the tax money anyway.
Since it’s been a month and half since I put one of these newsletters out, I won’t bore you with the endless number of economic indicators that have come out in my absence. To summarize, job growth did a little better, the housing sector is consistently putting up solid growth numbers (which everyone is very quick to question) and inflation has remained comparably dormant. Not spectacular stuff, but overall pointing in the right direction. On the downside, Europe still sucks at life and that coupled with our inability to get it together concerning fiscal policy has resulted in the International Monetary Fund cutting its forecast for global growth in 2012-’13. Locally speaking, Orlando is one of the top ten major metropolitan areas in the nation for year-over-year increases in asking prices for homes. So that is ultimately a huge positive for the prospect of home equity growth around here.
As always, take the good with the bad and respect the fact that these measures are volatile. For as much as many out there would love to hang their hats on particularly good or particularly bad news, it is all just aberrations in a greater river of information. It is best to focus on the general flow as opposed to each and every passing wave.
Just a thought, people. I do periodically have insightful moments. I tend to keep them to myself, but they still happen.
Random closing thought: talk-show host/celebrated walking manatee Rosie O’Donnell has described Honey Boo Boo (sadly you all know exactly who I am talking about) as a modern-day Shirley Temple. Take a minute for that to sink in. Yup. We’ve sunk that low. I think the Mayans were right about 2012. At least I hope so.
I had that thought where I felt I really had to put together a barn-burner in this newsletter since I’ve slacked so bad the past month and a half. Then I had some bourbon and had that thought where I just wanted to write the same self-centered, politically incorrect, offensive, poorly edited drivel that I always do. And you will love me for it.
Well, I had a kid. Honestly, Erin did most of the work. And it looked painful. Nevertheless, the fruit of my loins has been unleashed upon this world. Liam Augustine Whiteside. Hide your 0-3 month old daughters. Our doctor described him as a “Moose”, I jest you not. But yeah, he’s great. When he’s not screaming. Which is a lot.
iPhone 5 was recently released. The major change on this model? It’s longer. Apparently in the wake of Steve Jobs’ illustrious career and recent passing, Apple’s new CEO Tim Cook has an inferiority complex and is trying to prove something. With extra length. Kiiiiiiinda suggestive if you ask me.
Congress still hasn’t accomplished jack towards solving the Doomsday scenario that is the “fiscal cliff” that looms at the tail-end of this year. Basically, the Bush tax cuts expire along with a whole bunch of other fiscal policy crap that will result in the government taxing the fillings straight out of your teeth. So, of course the gravity of the economic consequences has created an apt hotbed for political angst to fester with absolutely nothing getting done, especially considering it’s an election year.
Have you ever seen Wile E Coyote handle a cliff well? Me neither. Soon that’ll be us taxpayers going “AAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaa….
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
The view is pretty nice from inside my house of cards
So the Olympics are over. How about that? I think we did good. I dunno. I sort of tuned out after images of Ryan Lochte flat drunk came out on the internet. That’s pretty much the highlight of my four year wait. As long as we beat those crazy Chinese, I’m happy.
And hey, while all that was going on we decided to land a rover named “Curiosity” on Mars to roll around and look at rocks. I am sure all felines in America breathed a communal sigh of relief when Curiosity left our atmosphere, considering his longstanding and ruthless habit of killing cats.
Yup. A pun. I’m not above it.
In the world of things that are actually relevant to this newsletter’s intended content, a fact that caught my eye this evening was that the S & P 500 index outperformed most hedge funds out there thus far this year. So, if you’re paying exorbitant fees for handsome men in suits to oversee your money (and I’m guessing that if you have money to be overseen, you are) then you are likely being beaten by someone who invests in the weighted average of basically freaking everything. So congratulations on that. I hope your hedge fund at least has an open bar at their annual client appreciation meet-and-greet.
Let’s hang out with the Grand Old Party for a bit. Everyone is up in arms about the announcement of representative Paul Ryan as Romney’s official runnin’ buddy. If I had a nickel for every time I heard some talking head claim that this is the “game-changer of the election” then I’d have enough to maybe buy a chalupa from Taco Bell.
I don’t watch the news much. It makes my brain hurt. But a few of ’em did say that.
Let’s face facts: this doesn’t mean a damn thing. Vice presidential nominees are as good as an elephant balancing on a big ball. Fun to look at, but essentially useless. Just look at Biden. He’s like that creepy uncle everyone has that lost just a few too many brain cells in the late 60’s/early 70’s. The kind of guy you have to tell, “Yes, I think it’s a great song, but I don’t think everyone wants to hear Free Bird for a seventh time in a row.”
But I have to admit, Ryan’s got his work cut out for him. Sarah Palin set the high-bar for political sideshow entertainment four years ago with her mamma grizzlies and caribou gutting and her uncanny ability to see Russia from her front porch. Ah, those were the good days.
Another well-calculated move on presidential candidate Romney’s part was to chide Todd Akin (a Missouri Republican Senate Nominee) for claiming that a woman’s body has ways of fighting off pregnancy in instances of “legitimate rape”.
Okay. Wow. They’re literally making it too easy for me these days.
First and foremost, Mitt Romney gets the “No kidding, Sherlock” award for siding with ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE WITH A BRAIN STEM IN AMERICA on this issue.
Side note: My mother fussed at me for dropping the S-bomb in my last newsletter (and deservingly so) therefore I have to be a better boy with my language (hence the use of “kidding” above, even though we all know what I meant) or I’m gonna get grounded. Sorry mom.
Second, really Todd Akin? Really? Not only do you think this (which is ridiculous enough), but you allowed this warped thought to travel all the way out of your fat face? On purpose? What the hell, man?
The realtors confidence index (yes, this is a real thing) showed that 85% of respondents reported an expectation of stable or higher home prices next year! Huzzah! This is the sixth month in a row that this index has been up and above the past record of August 2009 when they were…
...completely wrong. Crap.
Okay. Let’s give some credit where credit is due: I don’t think any of us saw the crap grenade that was (and continues to be) Europe’s economic crisis coming. So we can’t knock their expectation too much. And I think in 2009 we were all still too high on Obama-hope to be considered liable for our decisions.
And to further defend the National Association of Realtors’ opinion (I love you guys so much send me all of your business right now and hope you’re all just doing super) the hard stats that have been coming out are worth feeling optimistic about. Shrinking inventory and fewer distressed properties have begun driving up home prices. Mortgage rates continue to be as attractive as a Victoria’s Secret model after you’ve had a couple drinks. Stocks are struggling to maintain their rally, leading investors to seek alternative places to park their cash. Despite the numerous flaming hoops that exist in today’s credit requirements (just ask anyone who’s bought in the past 12 months) things aren’t all that bad in real estate.
Sooooooo, if you’d like to buy a place now seems to be an alright time to do it. And since you’ve got this guy helping finance that home then you’ve got an unfair advantage. Because I’m awesome.
And hey, while all that was going on we decided to land a rover named “Curiosity” on Mars to roll around and look at rocks. I am sure all felines in America breathed a communal sigh of relief when Curiosity left our atmosphere, considering his longstanding and ruthless habit of killing cats.
Yup. A pun. I’m not above it.
In the world of things that are actually relevant to this newsletter’s intended content, a fact that caught my eye this evening was that the S & P 500 index outperformed most hedge funds out there thus far this year. So, if you’re paying exorbitant fees for handsome men in suits to oversee your money (and I’m guessing that if you have money to be overseen, you are) then you are likely being beaten by someone who invests in the weighted average of basically freaking everything. So congratulations on that. I hope your hedge fund at least has an open bar at their annual client appreciation meet-and-greet.
Let’s hang out with the Grand Old Party for a bit. Everyone is up in arms about the announcement of representative Paul Ryan as Romney’s official runnin’ buddy. If I had a nickel for every time I heard some talking head claim that this is the “game-changer of the election” then I’d have enough to maybe buy a chalupa from Taco Bell.
I don’t watch the news much. It makes my brain hurt. But a few of ’em did say that.
Let’s face facts: this doesn’t mean a damn thing. Vice presidential nominees are as good as an elephant balancing on a big ball. Fun to look at, but essentially useless. Just look at Biden. He’s like that creepy uncle everyone has that lost just a few too many brain cells in the late 60’s/early 70’s. The kind of guy you have to tell, “Yes, I think it’s a great song, but I don’t think everyone wants to hear Free Bird for a seventh time in a row.”
But I have to admit, Ryan’s got his work cut out for him. Sarah Palin set the high-bar for political sideshow entertainment four years ago with her mamma grizzlies and caribou gutting and her uncanny ability to see Russia from her front porch. Ah, those were the good days.
Another well-calculated move on presidential candidate Romney’s part was to chide Todd Akin (a Missouri Republican Senate Nominee) for claiming that a woman’s body has ways of fighting off pregnancy in instances of “legitimate rape”.
Okay. Wow. They’re literally making it too easy for me these days.
First and foremost, Mitt Romney gets the “No kidding, Sherlock” award for siding with ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE WITH A BRAIN STEM IN AMERICA on this issue.
Side note: My mother fussed at me for dropping the S-bomb in my last newsletter (and deservingly so) therefore I have to be a better boy with my language (hence the use of “kidding” above, even though we all know what I meant) or I’m gonna get grounded. Sorry mom.
Second, really Todd Akin? Really? Not only do you think this (which is ridiculous enough), but you allowed this warped thought to travel all the way out of your fat face? On purpose? What the hell, man?
The realtors confidence index (yes, this is a real thing) showed that 85% of respondents reported an expectation of stable or higher home prices next year! Huzzah! This is the sixth month in a row that this index has been up and above the past record of August 2009 when they were…
...completely wrong. Crap.
Okay. Let’s give some credit where credit is due: I don’t think any of us saw the crap grenade that was (and continues to be) Europe’s economic crisis coming. So we can’t knock their expectation too much. And I think in 2009 we were all still too high on Obama-hope to be considered liable for our decisions.
And to further defend the National Association of Realtors’ opinion (I love you guys so much send me all of your business right now and hope you’re all just doing super) the hard stats that have been coming out are worth feeling optimistic about. Shrinking inventory and fewer distressed properties have begun driving up home prices. Mortgage rates continue to be as attractive as a Victoria’s Secret model after you’ve had a couple drinks. Stocks are struggling to maintain their rally, leading investors to seek alternative places to park their cash. Despite the numerous flaming hoops that exist in today’s credit requirements (just ask anyone who’s bought in the past 12 months) things aren’t all that bad in real estate.
Sooooooo, if you’d like to buy a place now seems to be an alright time to do it. And since you’ve got this guy helping finance that home then you’ve got an unfair advantage. Because I’m awesome.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Corn. People are eating it. Let's discuss.
There’s been a severe drought hitting the Midwest that has laid waste to a large percentage of the country’s corn crop this year. The headline I read was “There ain’t been no gol-derned rainclouds up in that there sky for a coon’s age, there ain’t” so I can only assume this is the worst it’s been in over 50 years. Aaaaaaand since we are now required by law to have at least 10% ethanol in our gasoline these days, this drought translates directly into higher prices at the pump.
HA! Stick THAT in your pipe and smoke it, hippies! Your tree-hugging bloodlust for lower gas prices and less dependence on foreign oil has resulted in higher gas prices. I feel like hugging an oil sheik and gently whispering in his ear “I’ll never leave you again, not even 10%.”
India has enjoyed one of the world’s worst power outages, leaving over 600 million people without electricity. So if you’re computer needs technical support in the next little bit, you’re screwed.
Investigation is still on-going in what is being dubbed as one of the greatest financial frauds of our time. And, given the top-notch financial fraud we’ve seen lately, that is a pretty big allegation. During the stock market/real estate downturn, a number of high ranking bank officials were accused of artificially tampering with and setting the rates for the LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offering Rate) otherwise known as the rate banks charge one another for overnight deposit lending which is controlled by the British Bankers Association.
Now, that doesn’t sound like a huge deal until you realize that the LIBOR is the underpinning rate behind $350 trillion in derivatives. So, while the blatant fraud assisted in providing very favorable consumer borrowing rates, it also trashed the returns that a bunch of municipalities rely on, wiped out an enormous amount of wealth retirees rely upon, and generally violated an untold amount of confidence in our world financial markets. Barclays has already admitted fault and more than a dozen other institutions have their necks on the chopping block right now.
Pretty awesome, Great Britain. I’m sure your Men’s Gymnastics bronze will be enough to get everyone to forget about this little snafu.
Our housing recovery stats continue to be a mixed bag. Homeownership has hit a 15 year low. The recent Case-Schiller home price index advanced 2.2%. Existing home sales in June dropped 5.4%. Mortgage rates maintain their rock-bottom pricing. Most definitely choppy waters, but I’ll take that any day over the seemingly endless plummet that has characterized the past few years.
The Summer Olympics make me smile like few things do. Once every four years (because no one honestly gives even half a shit about the Winter Olympics) America is united in cheering on our champions as they strive towards glory. Provides a ‘poetic justice’ kind of contrast to the divisive nature of our presidential political season. The inspiration from one individual’s success can make an entire country’s partisan bickering seem downright pathetic.
There’s a lesson buried somewhere in there.
But what the hell: Let’s kung-fu kick that hornet’s nest for fun.
Mitt Romney was recently chastised by the Palestinians for his comments indicating that Israeli culture allowed them to be comparatively more economically prosperous. So you mean to tell me that Jewish people are good with money?!??!?!!!?!?!?!??!?!?!??!??!?!?!
Yup. That was the whole joke. SO worth it.
Obama enjoyed his own gaffe in the form of “If you’ve got your own business—you didn’t build that. Someone helped you.” Now, while I am sure this comment was intended to point to the communally built system that allows entrepreneurs to succeed in this country, holy hell was it an epically dumbass choice of words. The re-election campaign has gone into back-pedal overdrive mode, which absolutely cracks me up.
To close a little further away from home, the European Central Bank’s top dog Mario Draghi has boldly stated that he will do “whatever is necessary” to preserve the integrity of the euro and keep the currency of the league of nations intact and alive. And if there is anything my upbringing on video games has taught me, it’s that you don’t take something a dude named Mario says lightly.
If that guy gets hold of a fire flower, someone’s going down. Probably Bowser. And I don’t think Bowser has anything to do with this. But everyone loves seeing a scapegoat burn. Especially literally.
HA! Stick THAT in your pipe and smoke it, hippies! Your tree-hugging bloodlust for lower gas prices and less dependence on foreign oil has resulted in higher gas prices. I feel like hugging an oil sheik and gently whispering in his ear “I’ll never leave you again, not even 10%.”
India has enjoyed one of the world’s worst power outages, leaving over 600 million people without electricity. So if you’re computer needs technical support in the next little bit, you’re screwed.
Investigation is still on-going in what is being dubbed as one of the greatest financial frauds of our time. And, given the top-notch financial fraud we’ve seen lately, that is a pretty big allegation. During the stock market/real estate downturn, a number of high ranking bank officials were accused of artificially tampering with and setting the rates for the LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offering Rate) otherwise known as the rate banks charge one another for overnight deposit lending which is controlled by the British Bankers Association.
Now, that doesn’t sound like a huge deal until you realize that the LIBOR is the underpinning rate behind $350 trillion in derivatives. So, while the blatant fraud assisted in providing very favorable consumer borrowing rates, it also trashed the returns that a bunch of municipalities rely on, wiped out an enormous amount of wealth retirees rely upon, and generally violated an untold amount of confidence in our world financial markets. Barclays has already admitted fault and more than a dozen other institutions have their necks on the chopping block right now.
Pretty awesome, Great Britain. I’m sure your Men’s Gymnastics bronze will be enough to get everyone to forget about this little snafu.
Our housing recovery stats continue to be a mixed bag. Homeownership has hit a 15 year low. The recent Case-Schiller home price index advanced 2.2%. Existing home sales in June dropped 5.4%. Mortgage rates maintain their rock-bottom pricing. Most definitely choppy waters, but I’ll take that any day over the seemingly endless plummet that has characterized the past few years.
The Summer Olympics make me smile like few things do. Once every four years (because no one honestly gives even half a shit about the Winter Olympics) America is united in cheering on our champions as they strive towards glory. Provides a ‘poetic justice’ kind of contrast to the divisive nature of our presidential political season. The inspiration from one individual’s success can make an entire country’s partisan bickering seem downright pathetic.
There’s a lesson buried somewhere in there.
But what the hell: Let’s kung-fu kick that hornet’s nest for fun.
Mitt Romney was recently chastised by the Palestinians for his comments indicating that Israeli culture allowed them to be comparatively more economically prosperous. So you mean to tell me that Jewish people are good with money?!??!?!!!?!?!?!??!?!?!??!??!?!?!
Yup. That was the whole joke. SO worth it.
Obama enjoyed his own gaffe in the form of “If you’ve got your own business—you didn’t build that. Someone helped you.” Now, while I am sure this comment was intended to point to the communally built system that allows entrepreneurs to succeed in this country, holy hell was it an epically dumbass choice of words. The re-election campaign has gone into back-pedal overdrive mode, which absolutely cracks me up.
To close a little further away from home, the European Central Bank’s top dog Mario Draghi has boldly stated that he will do “whatever is necessary” to preserve the integrity of the euro and keep the currency of the league of nations intact and alive. And if there is anything my upbringing on video games has taught me, it’s that you don’t take something a dude named Mario says lightly.
If that guy gets hold of a fire flower, someone’s going down. Probably Bowser. And I don’t think Bowser has anything to do with this. But everyone loves seeing a scapegoat burn. Especially literally.
Friday, July 13, 2012
We Live in a Screwy World
Bond prices are within stabbing distance of all-time record lows. And since bond prices are pretty intimately tied to mortgage interest rates, they are making rates so low that they’re off the chart, chain, hook, grid and wagon. Records only happen so often. These are the Michael Phelps’ of bond price lows.
Olympics references? I’ve got one.
I’ve told you pretty consistently lately that real estate statistics are pointing to a sustained and wide-spread recovery happening in home prices. Recent numbers did not disappoint. Year-over-year home sales and median home prices are up notably. New home inventory is falling. Homebuilders are being slowly pressured to increase production. All of this points to a floor beneath home prices. Whether it is artificial in nature, supported only by a cocktail of taxpayer subsidized rock-bottom rates and rule-bending governmental programs, we will have to wait to find out. But stability in my industry gets a big two thumbs up from this guy.
The potential downside is that we are still staring another wave of foreclosures in the eye. But the banks have gotten pretty darn good at turning those around. And frankly, we could use some inventory out there. So I don’t imagine there’s going to be a huge effect exacted upon national numbers from this round of foreclosures. But I suppose we shall have to wait and see.
Moody’s recently cut Italy’s sovereign debt’s credit rating by two tiers. Evidently Moody’s hasn’t watched the Sopranos. Those guys are freaking crazy. I’ve seen them give out some cement shoes for less. If I were Moody, I’d disappear for a few months.
Romney is narrowing the field of potential running mates. Shockingly enough, Condoleezza Rice seems to be bubbling to the surface as a front-runner. I gotta tip my hat to them: a black woman? That’s a minority-appealing double-whammy. Let no man say Republicans are not efficient in their politics. Maybe not elsewhere, but definitely in their politics.
I look forward to your hate-mail. I think I offended a wide variety of you with that one.
Jobs continue to be a drag on the economy, with the latest report not moving the needle on the unem-ployment rate and the growth pallid enough to potentially necessitate additional stimulus. That’s right! We’re back in the money printing business here shortly! Riiiiiiight until the critical level where toilet paper holds more value than the dollar. Then everyone would wipe themselves with dollar bills and that wouldn’t be very respectful to George Washington AND it would trash the toilet paper production industry. All sad circumstances. But between now and then, get them printing presses churning!
Europe is still causing untold sums of financial market confusion, and China is rapidly catching up as the biggest rock thrown into the metaphorical pond. I’m… I’m just sick of talking about this. Next.
The president’s health care reform bill held up in the Supreme Court in a 5-4 vote, and then was promptly voted for repeal by the House of Representatives for the ump-teenth time. It’s funny, be-cause I talk to insurance agents all the time who are directly affected by this and they all say “Well, we’ll see how it pans out.” There’s no certainty in politics is there? Everything is constantly up for debate? It’s like trying to ask your wife what she wants for dinner. She always tells YOU to pick, so you do. And then she says she’s not in the mood for that. And then you ask what SHE wants and she says “Whatever you want, honey.”
And this is why we golf. And drink.
Egypt now has their first freely elected president. I hope his first presidential edict is to make sure everyone starts “Walking Like an Egyptian” just to establish some sense of solidarity among his citizens. I know the Bangles would appreciate the free advertising.
Modern science has finally discovered proof behind the elusive Higgs Boson, otherwise lovingly known as the God Particle. Essentially, we’re now able to decisively explain how something can literally come from nothing, only this time without the assistance of psychedelic mushrooms. Many have extrapolated this to mean that scientists just proved God exists. Like, a shocking number of people have drawn this conclusion. I can only assume each and every one of them also has a favorite NASCAR driver and the corresponding set of collector plates displayed on their mantles.
People who draw wild, self-validating conclusions from discoveries in physics are dumb is what I’m getting at. Nothing against God. But the Higgs Boson doesn’t prove jack. Has nothing to do with economics or mortgages but doggonnit, it interested me.
Olympics references? I’ve got one.
I’ve told you pretty consistently lately that real estate statistics are pointing to a sustained and wide-spread recovery happening in home prices. Recent numbers did not disappoint. Year-over-year home sales and median home prices are up notably. New home inventory is falling. Homebuilders are being slowly pressured to increase production. All of this points to a floor beneath home prices. Whether it is artificial in nature, supported only by a cocktail of taxpayer subsidized rock-bottom rates and rule-bending governmental programs, we will have to wait to find out. But stability in my industry gets a big two thumbs up from this guy.
The potential downside is that we are still staring another wave of foreclosures in the eye. But the banks have gotten pretty darn good at turning those around. And frankly, we could use some inventory out there. So I don’t imagine there’s going to be a huge effect exacted upon national numbers from this round of foreclosures. But I suppose we shall have to wait and see.
Moody’s recently cut Italy’s sovereign debt’s credit rating by two tiers. Evidently Moody’s hasn’t watched the Sopranos. Those guys are freaking crazy. I’ve seen them give out some cement shoes for less. If I were Moody, I’d disappear for a few months.
Romney is narrowing the field of potential running mates. Shockingly enough, Condoleezza Rice seems to be bubbling to the surface as a front-runner. I gotta tip my hat to them: a black woman? That’s a minority-appealing double-whammy. Let no man say Republicans are not efficient in their politics. Maybe not elsewhere, but definitely in their politics.
I look forward to your hate-mail. I think I offended a wide variety of you with that one.
Jobs continue to be a drag on the economy, with the latest report not moving the needle on the unem-ployment rate and the growth pallid enough to potentially necessitate additional stimulus. That’s right! We’re back in the money printing business here shortly! Riiiiiiight until the critical level where toilet paper holds more value than the dollar. Then everyone would wipe themselves with dollar bills and that wouldn’t be very respectful to George Washington AND it would trash the toilet paper production industry. All sad circumstances. But between now and then, get them printing presses churning!
Europe is still causing untold sums of financial market confusion, and China is rapidly catching up as the biggest rock thrown into the metaphorical pond. I’m… I’m just sick of talking about this. Next.
The president’s health care reform bill held up in the Supreme Court in a 5-4 vote, and then was promptly voted for repeal by the House of Representatives for the ump-teenth time. It’s funny, be-cause I talk to insurance agents all the time who are directly affected by this and they all say “Well, we’ll see how it pans out.” There’s no certainty in politics is there? Everything is constantly up for debate? It’s like trying to ask your wife what she wants for dinner. She always tells YOU to pick, so you do. And then she says she’s not in the mood for that. And then you ask what SHE wants and she says “Whatever you want, honey.”
And this is why we golf. And drink.
Egypt now has their first freely elected president. I hope his first presidential edict is to make sure everyone starts “Walking Like an Egyptian” just to establish some sense of solidarity among his citizens. I know the Bangles would appreciate the free advertising.
Modern science has finally discovered proof behind the elusive Higgs Boson, otherwise lovingly known as the God Particle. Essentially, we’re now able to decisively explain how something can literally come from nothing, only this time without the assistance of psychedelic mushrooms. Many have extrapolated this to mean that scientists just proved God exists. Like, a shocking number of people have drawn this conclusion. I can only assume each and every one of them also has a favorite NASCAR driver and the corresponding set of collector plates displayed on their mantles.
People who draw wild, self-validating conclusions from discoveries in physics are dumb is what I’m getting at. Nothing against God. But the Higgs Boson doesn’t prove jack. Has nothing to do with economics or mortgages but doggonnit, it interested me.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Much Ado About Nothing
Well, Mitt has officially donned the red sash of the conservative presidential candidacy with a few handy and decisive state wins. I honestly couldn’t tell you which states he won in order to cinch the nomination, and I honestly couldn’t tell you whether or not Newt Gingrich understands that he’s no longer in the race. I imagine Newt is reciting his acceptance speech over and over into the mirror right now while smearing lipstick all over his face/head/neck. He’s a weird, self-delusional dude is what I’m getting at.
Media outlets have already joygasmed and kicked their partisanship quotients up to 1000%. Literally two channels from apart one another (I have Bright House, so I’ll let you guess which channels I’m referring to) I heard one claim that America was on a crash-course with financial collapse if we don’t radically change course and the other claim that America was on a crash-course with financial collapse if we deviate from the path we are on. My vote is that half of the country should secede. Then we can try both methods and figure out who the winner is via civil war. I’m sure that will be an efficient method of reconciling our differences.
All of this is extra awesome because Ben Bernanke (our lovable, huggable Federal Reserve Chairman) and representatives from the European Central Bank (whose names I can’t pronounce) have stepped up their rhetoric and declared that politicians need to get their fiscal policies straight. Because monetary policy can only go so far towards propping up our sagging global economy.
Half of you are wishing that you actually stayed awake in macroeconomics 101 right now so you would get what I was saying. The other half of you enjoyed the daily nap. I love all of you equally.
These comments are in no way ambiguous about addressing the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ our country faces at the tail end of this year when the Bush Tax Cuts expire. Clearly now is not the ideal time to vacuum cash out of our communal pockets via tax hikes. However, it does offer a fun battleground for fiscal conservatives and liberals to brandish their parties’ respective platforms concerning the distribution of tax burden in an impotent attempt to appeal to their voter bases and ensure their own job security at the cost of politically deadlocking us all into oblivion. It’s like having a rocking chair: gives you something to do but doesn’t get you anywhere.
And we just eat that crap up like it’s caviar. Sad, when you think about it. Thankfully, we’re not thrillingly proficient at thinking about much beyond how much we like/dislike the new Angry Bird that freezes everything he hits. I think he’s overrated. And he doesn’t stand on the ideals our forefathers shed blood for. BOOM. I’m pretty sure that’s the first political joke involving Angry Birds that you’ve ever read. WINNING.
Speaking of unintelligible macroeconomic happenings, China went ahead and cut their tightly regulated benchmark interest rate by .25% in a shock-and-awe move. This is coming on the heels of an equally shocking weak American jobs report. The much-anticipated Greek elections have come and gone while apparently accomplishing very little towards reassuring global markets of their future solvency. So, to summarize, a bunch of stuff happened and essentially nothing has changed. That is all.
Pakistan suddenly decided they don’t want U.S. drone strikes in their country. Yeah, totally cool. We get it. We don’t want to impose or anything. You guys definitely have done a terrific job of not im-posing on us. And not accepting billions in international aid funding from us. And not knowingly harboring terrorists in a thinly guised anti-American plot against us. Yeah. We’ll just pack up our toys and go home. It’s been a super-fun visit. You guys take care.
Mortgage rates? Good Lord. I know that all of us in the world of finance have been blabbing on about super-low rates and how they can’t get any lower. And every time we’ve hit rock bottom it seems like someone just throws us a jackhammer and on-down we go. They’re down there. Refinance something. Or buy something. Tell your buddies and your family and your grocery store manager to refinance or buy something.
And finance it though Greg Whiteside. Because he’s a swell guy.
Media outlets have already joygasmed and kicked their partisanship quotients up to 1000%. Literally two channels from apart one another (I have Bright House, so I’ll let you guess which channels I’m referring to) I heard one claim that America was on a crash-course with financial collapse if we don’t radically change course and the other claim that America was on a crash-course with financial collapse if we deviate from the path we are on. My vote is that half of the country should secede. Then we can try both methods and figure out who the winner is via civil war. I’m sure that will be an efficient method of reconciling our differences.
All of this is extra awesome because Ben Bernanke (our lovable, huggable Federal Reserve Chairman) and representatives from the European Central Bank (whose names I can’t pronounce) have stepped up their rhetoric and declared that politicians need to get their fiscal policies straight. Because monetary policy can only go so far towards propping up our sagging global economy.
Half of you are wishing that you actually stayed awake in macroeconomics 101 right now so you would get what I was saying. The other half of you enjoyed the daily nap. I love all of you equally.
These comments are in no way ambiguous about addressing the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ our country faces at the tail end of this year when the Bush Tax Cuts expire. Clearly now is not the ideal time to vacuum cash out of our communal pockets via tax hikes. However, it does offer a fun battleground for fiscal conservatives and liberals to brandish their parties’ respective platforms concerning the distribution of tax burden in an impotent attempt to appeal to their voter bases and ensure their own job security at the cost of politically deadlocking us all into oblivion. It’s like having a rocking chair: gives you something to do but doesn’t get you anywhere.
And we just eat that crap up like it’s caviar. Sad, when you think about it. Thankfully, we’re not thrillingly proficient at thinking about much beyond how much we like/dislike the new Angry Bird that freezes everything he hits. I think he’s overrated. And he doesn’t stand on the ideals our forefathers shed blood for. BOOM. I’m pretty sure that’s the first political joke involving Angry Birds that you’ve ever read. WINNING.
Speaking of unintelligible macroeconomic happenings, China went ahead and cut their tightly regulated benchmark interest rate by .25% in a shock-and-awe move. This is coming on the heels of an equally shocking weak American jobs report. The much-anticipated Greek elections have come and gone while apparently accomplishing very little towards reassuring global markets of their future solvency. So, to summarize, a bunch of stuff happened and essentially nothing has changed. That is all.
Pakistan suddenly decided they don’t want U.S. drone strikes in their country. Yeah, totally cool. We get it. We don’t want to impose or anything. You guys definitely have done a terrific job of not im-posing on us. And not accepting billions in international aid funding from us. And not knowingly harboring terrorists in a thinly guised anti-American plot against us. Yeah. We’ll just pack up our toys and go home. It’s been a super-fun visit. You guys take care.
Mortgage rates? Good Lord. I know that all of us in the world of finance have been blabbing on about super-low rates and how they can’t get any lower. And every time we’ve hit rock bottom it seems like someone just throws us a jackhammer and on-down we go. They’re down there. Refinance something. Or buy something. Tell your buddies and your family and your grocery store manager to refinance or buy something.
And finance it though Greg Whiteside. Because he’s a swell guy.
Monday, May 21, 2012
Even David Copperfield can't make $2 billion disappear that fast
Point numero uno: My 30th birthday. This Thursday. Tim’s Wine Market on Orange Ave. Everyone cool is doing it. You want to be cool, right?
Know what? I’ve mentioned this in the past three newsletters running. I don’t want to belabor the point. However, I would be remiss if I did not POUND THE CONCEPT INTO YOUR SKULL that HARP 2.0 (the ‘refinance regardless of your home’s value’) program is here. And it’s working. With next to nothing out of pocket. And if your interest rate is in this upper 5s or higher or if it’s an adjust-able and if you aren’t sure whether Fannie or Freddie owns your loan, you’re dumb for not at least checking into this.
There. I said it. I just called you dumb. In a marketing piece of mine. Clearly I don’t understand the point of marketing. But in all seriousness it could mean the difference of a few hundred dollars on a monthly basis for you with very little effort. So if you’re a homeowner and the prospect of an extra few hundred bucks per month in your pocket entices you, maybe give me a call. Juuuuuust sayin’.
Europe continues to… be Europe. Consequently, stocks have enjoyed a solid 2x4ing to the face in recent trading from collateral damage. Not that interest rates really NEEDED another reason to stay ridiculously low, but market participants have thusly declared that they are scared and confused, wet themselves, and went crying to hide in bonds. Hence low rates. Soggy, low rates.
Not even Facebook’s iconic IPO could crack the downturn in stocks, ending their virgin voyage into the open markets at dang near the same place they started. Which gets no ‘like’s from traders.
Another growing concern is the nature of the Chinese economic slowdown. China’s a silly little country in that they run what’s called a “command economy”. So, whatever numbers they want to put out, they put out. Regardless of their factual base. According to the IMF (which I thought for the longest time was the Impossible Mission Force where they train scientologists to kick ass, but no, it’s the International Monetary Fund), China has been the single largest contributor to worldwide GDP growth, accounting for roughly 31% of global growth since 2010.
Now, the numbers they have been releasing have been over-archingly good. Buuuuut (not to sound like a conspiracy theorist) consider that one of their biggest customers (Europe) is going through what I will judiciously refer to as a “bit of a rough patch” and their other biggest customer (us) is not completely spend-crazy again (yet) and you’ve got a recipe for danger. Whether they look good from an economic release perspective or not does not eliminate the underpinning problems. These days we’re all one great big economic body and if one part of the body suffers, we all suffer.
Our latest domestic FUBAR comes to us from JPMorgan Chase. The goliath bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon is the newest tenant of the financial world’s hot seat, as it was recently elucidated that his aggressive trading strategies (which he spent boatloads of cash to lobby for because they weren’t thrillingly “OK” in the current regulatory environment) lost somewhere in the neighborhood of two- to three-billion dollars.
So Jamie! Good news, bad news situation. Good news: You get to keep your job. Bad news: You’re being sued straight to oblivion by your shareholders. And you’re now required to appear before Congress. And nobody likes you. I’m fairly certain the next logical step along this path is being tarred and feathered by a lynch mob. So good luck with that.
Want to bask in a little ray of sunshine? Well, Move.com recently released the top 10 markets showing year-over-year median listing price improvements. Seven of them were in Florida. Orlando was among them along with Tampa/St. Pete, Lakeland, Miami, Naples, Cape Coral/Ft. Myers and Bradenton/Sarasota. Ba-BOOM.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit we’re coming off of some pretty dismal lows. However with the recent shortage of housing inventory, volatility in other asset classes and a steady uptick in contracts being signed I am not altogether surprised. That doesn’t mean we’re “out of the woods” by any stretch of the imagination. Unemployment still drags on the overall economic recovery. Foreclosure activity has re-accelerated in early 2012 although April was a bright spot. But it does point to the fact that the downward spiral we’ve been riding does have an end in sight.
I like to end with a smile. So here’s a video of a kitten fighting against granny smith apples to coordi-nated orchestral music. Arguably the best 2 minutes of your day. I’m especially fond of the flying bitch-slap at 1:11.
Know what? I’ve mentioned this in the past three newsletters running. I don’t want to belabor the point. However, I would be remiss if I did not POUND THE CONCEPT INTO YOUR SKULL that HARP 2.0 (the ‘refinance regardless of your home’s value’) program is here. And it’s working. With next to nothing out of pocket. And if your interest rate is in this upper 5s or higher or if it’s an adjust-able and if you aren’t sure whether Fannie or Freddie owns your loan, you’re dumb for not at least checking into this.
There. I said it. I just called you dumb. In a marketing piece of mine. Clearly I don’t understand the point of marketing. But in all seriousness it could mean the difference of a few hundred dollars on a monthly basis for you with very little effort. So if you’re a homeowner and the prospect of an extra few hundred bucks per month in your pocket entices you, maybe give me a call. Juuuuuust sayin’.
Europe continues to… be Europe. Consequently, stocks have enjoyed a solid 2x4ing to the face in recent trading from collateral damage. Not that interest rates really NEEDED another reason to stay ridiculously low, but market participants have thusly declared that they are scared and confused, wet themselves, and went crying to hide in bonds. Hence low rates. Soggy, low rates.
Not even Facebook’s iconic IPO could crack the downturn in stocks, ending their virgin voyage into the open markets at dang near the same place they started. Which gets no ‘like’s from traders.
Another growing concern is the nature of the Chinese economic slowdown. China’s a silly little country in that they run what’s called a “command economy”. So, whatever numbers they want to put out, they put out. Regardless of their factual base. According to the IMF (which I thought for the longest time was the Impossible Mission Force where they train scientologists to kick ass, but no, it’s the International Monetary Fund), China has been the single largest contributor to worldwide GDP growth, accounting for roughly 31% of global growth since 2010.
Now, the numbers they have been releasing have been over-archingly good. Buuuuut (not to sound like a conspiracy theorist) consider that one of their biggest customers (Europe) is going through what I will judiciously refer to as a “bit of a rough patch” and their other biggest customer (us) is not completely spend-crazy again (yet) and you’ve got a recipe for danger. Whether they look good from an economic release perspective or not does not eliminate the underpinning problems. These days we’re all one great big economic body and if one part of the body suffers, we all suffer.
Our latest domestic FUBAR comes to us from JPMorgan Chase. The goliath bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon is the newest tenant of the financial world’s hot seat, as it was recently elucidated that his aggressive trading strategies (which he spent boatloads of cash to lobby for because they weren’t thrillingly “OK” in the current regulatory environment) lost somewhere in the neighborhood of two- to three-billion dollars.
So Jamie! Good news, bad news situation. Good news: You get to keep your job. Bad news: You’re being sued straight to oblivion by your shareholders. And you’re now required to appear before Congress. And nobody likes you. I’m fairly certain the next logical step along this path is being tarred and feathered by a lynch mob. So good luck with that.
Want to bask in a little ray of sunshine? Well, Move.com recently released the top 10 markets showing year-over-year median listing price improvements. Seven of them were in Florida. Orlando was among them along with Tampa/St. Pete, Lakeland, Miami, Naples, Cape Coral/Ft. Myers and Bradenton/Sarasota. Ba-BOOM.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit we’re coming off of some pretty dismal lows. However with the recent shortage of housing inventory, volatility in other asset classes and a steady uptick in contracts being signed I am not altogether surprised. That doesn’t mean we’re “out of the woods” by any stretch of the imagination. Unemployment still drags on the overall economic recovery. Foreclosure activity has re-accelerated in early 2012 although April was a bright spot. But it does point to the fact that the downward spiral we’ve been riding does have an end in sight.
I like to end with a smile. So here’s a video of a kitten fighting against granny smith apples to coordi-nated orchestral music. Arguably the best 2 minutes of your day. I’m especially fond of the flying bitch-slap at 1:11.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Economics, Politics and Procreation
Young ladies of the world be warned: my beautiful wife Erin and I are having a son. I’m told this makes my life infinitely easier. If you’re having a son you have to worry about one guy, but if you’re having a daughter you have to worry about every guy.
I’m also going to be celebrating my big 30th birthday on Thursday, May 24th. Going to be a wine tasting of epic proportions over at Tim’s Wine Market in Orlando. I will be bombarding you with reminders between now and then, but go ahead and carve that evening out of your schedule for me. And for wine.
Alright. Family stuff over. Let’s talk business.
The HARP 2.0 refinance program aimed at refinancing underwater mortgages (when you owe more than the property is currently worth) is gaining some serious momentum. While many lenders had much of the program’s intent lost in translation, a few lenders brought it to market carte blanche. As such, a lot of homeowners are getting to take advantage of the current interest rates. Seriously people, if it’s your tax dollars that are going towards keeping these interest rates so dang low you might as well get the benefits that come along with it. Just seems to make sense. So, if you haven’t already (and a lot of you have, which I am pleased about) give me a call and let’s at least see what potential benefit is available to you. Doesn’t hurt to check.
Our economic recovery was projected to be choppy, and the numbers aren’t disappointing in that respect. Homebuilder sentiment took an unexpected turn for the worse. Job creation slowed. Unemployment rate dipped. Inflation measures remain subdued. The Federal Reserve assured the markets that further quantitative easing was very likely not going to happen. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
However a lot of big names are pointing to the housing market as a soon-to-be hotbed of optimism. Hard hit markets like Phoenix and Miami are starting to roar back into existence. J P Morgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon was recently quoted as saying “I believe that we are very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down, but all other signs are pointing green.” And he’s not alone in his assessment. The Kiplinger economic report indicates that despite the fact that a housing recovery will be slow, it will still begin to happen this year. Bank of America is even starting to bet on a housing recovery.
Does that mean you have precious little time to run out and buy a house before prices go through the roof and interest rates jack up to double digits? Probably not. But it’s better news than we’ve been getting for a while. It means that now might be a decent time to buy if you NEED a home to, ya know, live in. Crazy thought, I realize.
The recent jobs report numbers sucked. Pretty badly. Only 60% of what analysts projected was going to get created, and they weren’t overly optimistic in their projections. Not the finest thing to have happen as our Commander-in-Chief prepares for political fisticuffs.
Speaking of which, it appears that Mitt Romney is the inevitable Republican nominee despite Newt Gingrich’s admirable yet misguided tenacity. When the official word hits the headlines, I am sure Mitt will put on his finest grey suit and demurely say “Hooray” whilst churning butter and watching C-SPAN. Then he’ll retire to his favorite armchair to sit and heavily consider the effectiveness of the fertilizer he’s using in his herb garden.
He’s boring is what I’m getting at. So enjoy voting for Obama or ...against Obama. Maybe if Mitt got Sarah Palin as a running mate I’d be more interested. Or a velociraptor with machine guns taped to its head. Just to provide a little contrast to ol’ Mitt-eroo. Either choice would be equally exciting. And likely equally effective.
And now to cover a ton of stories that didn’t make this newsletter in a single sentence each: Apple’s stock price has taken an absolute pounding over the last week, so maybe someone should ask Siri what to do about it. I tip my hat to everyone who participated in the Boston marathon because now they know what cremation feels like. Our Secret Service enjoyed a not-so-secret romp with some Colombian whores because, let’s face it, Colombian whores are awesome romping buddies. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un claimed the title of “Worst Attempt at a Missile Launch Ever” when a paper airplane flew further than his country’s mighty war technology.
I miss Kim Jong Il already.
I’m also going to be celebrating my big 30th birthday on Thursday, May 24th. Going to be a wine tasting of epic proportions over at Tim’s Wine Market in Orlando. I will be bombarding you with reminders between now and then, but go ahead and carve that evening out of your schedule for me. And for wine.
Alright. Family stuff over. Let’s talk business.
The HARP 2.0 refinance program aimed at refinancing underwater mortgages (when you owe more than the property is currently worth) is gaining some serious momentum. While many lenders had much of the program’s intent lost in translation, a few lenders brought it to market carte blanche. As such, a lot of homeowners are getting to take advantage of the current interest rates. Seriously people, if it’s your tax dollars that are going towards keeping these interest rates so dang low you might as well get the benefits that come along with it. Just seems to make sense. So, if you haven’t already (and a lot of you have, which I am pleased about) give me a call and let’s at least see what potential benefit is available to you. Doesn’t hurt to check.
Our economic recovery was projected to be choppy, and the numbers aren’t disappointing in that respect. Homebuilder sentiment took an unexpected turn for the worse. Job creation slowed. Unemployment rate dipped. Inflation measures remain subdued. The Federal Reserve assured the markets that further quantitative easing was very likely not going to happen. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
However a lot of big names are pointing to the housing market as a soon-to-be hotbed of optimism. Hard hit markets like Phoenix and Miami are starting to roar back into existence. J P Morgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon was recently quoted as saying “I believe that we are very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down, but all other signs are pointing green.” And he’s not alone in his assessment. The Kiplinger economic report indicates that despite the fact that a housing recovery will be slow, it will still begin to happen this year. Bank of America is even starting to bet on a housing recovery.
Does that mean you have precious little time to run out and buy a house before prices go through the roof and interest rates jack up to double digits? Probably not. But it’s better news than we’ve been getting for a while. It means that now might be a decent time to buy if you NEED a home to, ya know, live in. Crazy thought, I realize.
The recent jobs report numbers sucked. Pretty badly. Only 60% of what analysts projected was going to get created, and they weren’t overly optimistic in their projections. Not the finest thing to have happen as our Commander-in-Chief prepares for political fisticuffs.
Speaking of which, it appears that Mitt Romney is the inevitable Republican nominee despite Newt Gingrich’s admirable yet misguided tenacity. When the official word hits the headlines, I am sure Mitt will put on his finest grey suit and demurely say “Hooray” whilst churning butter and watching C-SPAN. Then he’ll retire to his favorite armchair to sit and heavily consider the effectiveness of the fertilizer he’s using in his herb garden.
He’s boring is what I’m getting at. So enjoy voting for Obama or ...against Obama. Maybe if Mitt got Sarah Palin as a running mate I’d be more interested. Or a velociraptor with machine guns taped to its head. Just to provide a little contrast to ol’ Mitt-eroo. Either choice would be equally exciting. And likely equally effective.
And now to cover a ton of stories that didn’t make this newsletter in a single sentence each: Apple’s stock price has taken an absolute pounding over the last week, so maybe someone should ask Siri what to do about it. I tip my hat to everyone who participated in the Boston marathon because now they know what cremation feels like. Our Secret Service enjoyed a not-so-secret romp with some Colombian whores because, let’s face it, Colombian whores are awesome romping buddies. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un claimed the title of “Worst Attempt at a Missile Launch Ever” when a paper airplane flew further than his country’s mighty war technology.
I miss Kim Jong Il already.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
The 'angels' in Washington have given us another HARP to play with
Well everyone, we can all release that breath we’ve cumulatively been holding: the Home Affordable Refinance Program’s second coming is upon us. St. Paddy’s Day was the official release of the program updates to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s respective automated underwriting systems.
Those are the great big machines that tell all the mortgage underwriters what to do. I believe that they’re called SkyNet in the Terminator movies.
But it’s happening. For realzies. Oooooooone little catch. Lender overlays.
Lemme break it down for ya. Uncle Sam can say he wants X, Y and Z, but lenders can turn around and decide only X and Z fit their risk-appetite. And that leaves Y high and dry and unimplemented. So, in an instance like this where we’re having lenders lend WAY more than the underlying assets are worth, there can be some lenders that prove to be more gun-shy than others.
Why do I mention this? Because I’m a broker. And that gives me obscene amounts of flexibility in my choice of lenders. So whomever happens to come forth with the best and most widely applicable interpretation of the government’s guidelines, you can bet your grandma’s dentures that we’ll be on it and sending applications on through that channel.
And grandma needs those dentures.
So, the fact is while the program’s birthing process is underway you can get your application in and working. That way you’re at the front of the line when the mad stampede for the front door happens.
In other news, a somewhat unexpected string of upbeat events roiled markets and lit a fire under the stock market, causing it to extend an already impressive rally. Sadly, what’s good for stocks tends to be problematic for maintaining low interest rates. So, a good jobs report (added 227,000 jobs), Ben Bernanke changing his language on the economy’s growth from ‘modest’ to ‘moderate’ growth (yes, that one word actually moved markets), an overall success in the latest iteration of bank stress tests (I would prefer we do these by sticking CEOs on treadmills and making them chase a dollar bill hanging from the end of a plunger on their forehead) and Apple’s new iPad being such a huge seller (big shock there) all made rates take a multi-pronged whack.
Don’t get me wrong. Rates are still down there. But it is cause for consideration. As our economy gets healthier, interest rates are gonna rise and demand is going to come right back with it. And you can’t say we didn’t try to let you know that good things were coming.
Facebook looks to target mobile devices with advertisements as a driver behind it’s next growth surge. Because it went public and is now in need of constant growth to satisfy their new legion of shareholders. Ads on mobile devices are really, really annoying. Annoying to the point of possibly driving away users en masse. While we’re on the subject, go ahead and search your deleted e-mail items (I know you have the technology to do this and I don’t think you save my newsletters) for my 2/5/2012 newsletter and read the second paragraph. G’head. I’ll wait here.
...I WAS SO RIGHT!!! I WIN THE ‘I AM RIGHT’ GAME!!! Shower me with praise and/or a Nobel prize for awesomeness! And it only took just over a month to happen. Sometimes it hurts to be this good. Not often though.
But seriously. If you haven’t called me to talk about refinancing yet, you should feel bad. Really really bad. Think of all the SPCA shelters you could sponsor with your monthly savings. Sarah McLachlan would love you forever.
Make Sarah McLachlan happy. Call me and refinance. For the homeless puppies.
Those are the great big machines that tell all the mortgage underwriters what to do. I believe that they’re called SkyNet in the Terminator movies.
But it’s happening. For realzies. Oooooooone little catch. Lender overlays.
Lemme break it down for ya. Uncle Sam can say he wants X, Y and Z, but lenders can turn around and decide only X and Z fit their risk-appetite. And that leaves Y high and dry and unimplemented. So, in an instance like this where we’re having lenders lend WAY more than the underlying assets are worth, there can be some lenders that prove to be more gun-shy than others.
Why do I mention this? Because I’m a broker. And that gives me obscene amounts of flexibility in my choice of lenders. So whomever happens to come forth with the best and most widely applicable interpretation of the government’s guidelines, you can bet your grandma’s dentures that we’ll be on it and sending applications on through that channel.
And grandma needs those dentures.
So, the fact is while the program’s birthing process is underway you can get your application in and working. That way you’re at the front of the line when the mad stampede for the front door happens.
In other news, a somewhat unexpected string of upbeat events roiled markets and lit a fire under the stock market, causing it to extend an already impressive rally. Sadly, what’s good for stocks tends to be problematic for maintaining low interest rates. So, a good jobs report (added 227,000 jobs), Ben Bernanke changing his language on the economy’s growth from ‘modest’ to ‘moderate’ growth (yes, that one word actually moved markets), an overall success in the latest iteration of bank stress tests (I would prefer we do these by sticking CEOs on treadmills and making them chase a dollar bill hanging from the end of a plunger on their forehead) and Apple’s new iPad being such a huge seller (big shock there) all made rates take a multi-pronged whack.
Don’t get me wrong. Rates are still down there. But it is cause for consideration. As our economy gets healthier, interest rates are gonna rise and demand is going to come right back with it. And you can’t say we didn’t try to let you know that good things were coming.
Facebook looks to target mobile devices with advertisements as a driver behind it’s next growth surge. Because it went public and is now in need of constant growth to satisfy their new legion of shareholders. Ads on mobile devices are really, really annoying. Annoying to the point of possibly driving away users en masse. While we’re on the subject, go ahead and search your deleted e-mail items (I know you have the technology to do this and I don’t think you save my newsletters) for my 2/5/2012 newsletter and read the second paragraph. G’head. I’ll wait here.
...I WAS SO RIGHT!!! I WIN THE ‘I AM RIGHT’ GAME!!! Shower me with praise and/or a Nobel prize for awesomeness! And it only took just over a month to happen. Sometimes it hurts to be this good. Not often though.
But seriously. If you haven’t called me to talk about refinancing yet, you should feel bad. Really really bad. Think of all the SPCA shelters you could sponsor with your monthly savings. Sarah McLachlan would love you forever.
Make Sarah McLachlan happy. Call me and refinance. For the homeless puppies.
Monday, February 27, 2012
The music of a HARP soothes even the savage beast (who happens to be underwater on his beastly home)
I am officially convinced. The Home Affordable Refinance Program’s (HARP) 2nd coming will actually be productive. Well, to be honest it’s not me that is convinced: it is all my lenders. They are hiring underwriters like mad in an effort to staff up for the tsunami of applications they anticipate.
I was admittedly skeptical because, let’s face it, every government program aimed at fixing the housing market thus far has failed as bad as a LeBron to Wade late tie-the-game pass. (too soon?)
On that note, congrats to the West on their win tonight. Enjoy that and… I dunno. What else do Westerners enjoy? Overly twang-y music? Dry, arid summers? Cheap labor from illegal immigrants? Corn? The last two sort of work in tandem…
Anywho, this HARP thing is happening. There are still a lot of question marks surrounding the details of the program and how involved lenders will get. But if it comes out in the iteration that most industry professionals believe it’s going to come out in, there will be a mad dash for the door to get approved. So, if you or anyone you know is thinking about attempting to capitalize on it, call or e-mail me now. We’ll get your info loaded up so that the moment the floodgates open you will be as ready as humanly possible. Looking like mid-March is when we’re going to get concrete answers.
Europe continues to be a hotbed of issues. Every time that regulators and authorities come to some ground-breaking save-the-universe conclusion, everyone begins to question their ability to actually DO what it is the country in question says they’re gonna do. This constant lingering threat of gyro-flavored doom has kept investors on guard and in large part parked in safe havens like mortgage bonds. So, from a purely selfish perspective, yaaaaaaaaaaay for the awful fiscal policies of those blokes across the pond. Helping keep our mortgage rates nice and low.
Anyone from Europe I call a bloke. I know they all have their own countries and languages and heritages and all of that, I just don’t care. Deal with it. I’m just glad we’re not the financial pariah of the world anymore. There is nothing a geek loves more than and even bigger geek to distract the bullies.
Concerning real estate (as that is supposed to be the point of this entire newsletter), it’s kind of weird out there right now. Local realtors are seeing houses pop onto the market and have a double-digit number of offers in a matter of hours. In fact, looking at a macro level, the National Association of Realtors reported that the inventory of homes for sale has dropped to the lowest level since march 2005. Yet we’re not seeing house prices move north in an appreciable manner.
What gives?
The fact is, I don’t have a thrillingly good answer to that question. Could be the preponderance of distressed sales in the market as banks unload properties off their books. Could be the “shadow inventory” bleeding into the market and skewing statistics. Could be that all the demand is at the bottom of the price pool for homes. Could be that move-up buyers have been gridlocked into their current properties because they are financially underwater. Could be that us Floridians were hit particularly hard by the downturn and our recent surge in demand indicates that we’re at the forefront of the bounce off of the market bottom. Lots of theories floating around.
I do have my own theory about it, though. I’m a believer in the pendulum effect. Things go too far to one side and on the return trip they essentially skip the middle-ground and end up entirely too far to the other side with a lot of momentum to artificially hold there for a while. Things were excessively good for a while, now the opposite is true.
Think about it. Go ask John Q. Public how housing is doing and he’ll probably give you some sort of story about how so-and-so lost everything in real estate and is suffering because of it. But John’s talking about something that happened two years ago. Everyone is. But the markets aren’t concerned about two years ago. They’re concerned about the here and now.
And with all that negative sentiment floating around effectively keeping a lid on price appreciation and needlessly sidelining eligible buyers, foreign money and cash investors are snapping up properties at fire-sale prices. Doing it right in front of everyone and still going unnoticed. Because as bad as things are, owning a piece of America is still a smart long-term investment.
I was admittedly skeptical because, let’s face it, every government program aimed at fixing the housing market thus far has failed as bad as a LeBron to Wade late tie-the-game pass. (too soon?)
On that note, congrats to the West on their win tonight. Enjoy that and… I dunno. What else do Westerners enjoy? Overly twang-y music? Dry, arid summers? Cheap labor from illegal immigrants? Corn? The last two sort of work in tandem…
Anywho, this HARP thing is happening. There are still a lot of question marks surrounding the details of the program and how involved lenders will get. But if it comes out in the iteration that most industry professionals believe it’s going to come out in, there will be a mad dash for the door to get approved. So, if you or anyone you know is thinking about attempting to capitalize on it, call or e-mail me now. We’ll get your info loaded up so that the moment the floodgates open you will be as ready as humanly possible. Looking like mid-March is when we’re going to get concrete answers.
Europe continues to be a hotbed of issues. Every time that regulators and authorities come to some ground-breaking save-the-universe conclusion, everyone begins to question their ability to actually DO what it is the country in question says they’re gonna do. This constant lingering threat of gyro-flavored doom has kept investors on guard and in large part parked in safe havens like mortgage bonds. So, from a purely selfish perspective, yaaaaaaaaaaay for the awful fiscal policies of those blokes across the pond. Helping keep our mortgage rates nice and low.
Anyone from Europe I call a bloke. I know they all have their own countries and languages and heritages and all of that, I just don’t care. Deal with it. I’m just glad we’re not the financial pariah of the world anymore. There is nothing a geek loves more than and even bigger geek to distract the bullies.
Concerning real estate (as that is supposed to be the point of this entire newsletter), it’s kind of weird out there right now. Local realtors are seeing houses pop onto the market and have a double-digit number of offers in a matter of hours. In fact, looking at a macro level, the National Association of Realtors reported that the inventory of homes for sale has dropped to the lowest level since march 2005. Yet we’re not seeing house prices move north in an appreciable manner.
What gives?
The fact is, I don’t have a thrillingly good answer to that question. Could be the preponderance of distressed sales in the market as banks unload properties off their books. Could be the “shadow inventory” bleeding into the market and skewing statistics. Could be that all the demand is at the bottom of the price pool for homes. Could be that move-up buyers have been gridlocked into their current properties because they are financially underwater. Could be that us Floridians were hit particularly hard by the downturn and our recent surge in demand indicates that we’re at the forefront of the bounce off of the market bottom. Lots of theories floating around.
I do have my own theory about it, though. I’m a believer in the pendulum effect. Things go too far to one side and on the return trip they essentially skip the middle-ground and end up entirely too far to the other side with a lot of momentum to artificially hold there for a while. Things were excessively good for a while, now the opposite is true.
Think about it. Go ask John Q. Public how housing is doing and he’ll probably give you some sort of story about how so-and-so lost everything in real estate and is suffering because of it. But John’s talking about something that happened two years ago. Everyone is. But the markets aren’t concerned about two years ago. They’re concerned about the here and now.
And with all that negative sentiment floating around effectively keeping a lid on price appreciation and needlessly sidelining eligible buyers, foreign money and cash investors are snapping up properties at fire-sale prices. Doing it right in front of everyone and still going unnoticed. Because as bad as things are, owning a piece of America is still a smart long-term investment.
Monday, February 6, 2012
It's Half-Time America
Well, the sonogram went well so I have been told I am now allowed to make it official: I am going to be a father. Erin’s at about 10 weeks right now. Cuh-RAZINESS.
Facebook is going public. Almost feels weird to say, doesn’t it? Because it FEELS so public already? Evidently Facebook’s inability to cope with China’s inability to cope with open-content engines will stunt the IPO’s initial growth. However I imagine the social media giant will in short order be ridiculously well funded AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAND concurrently ridiculously outside-controlled to where it will become encumbered so badly with ads and stupid, commercial content that it will be re-placed by some MySpace 2.0 upstart because it “hasn’t sold out.” Yet.
Eat that, counter-culture. I know your game. Also my high school English teacher just blew his coronary over that run-on sentence I just pulled. And starting a sentence with a conjunction. Twice.
Romney decisively won the Florida Republican primary. He then neatly took Nevada. So, since Florida’s vote usually coincides with the primary winner (no factual data was used in making this statement so I’m basically making it up), I’m calling Romney as the Republican candidate. WOOOOO!!!!! ROMNEY 2012!!! Multiple wives for everyone!
Oh wait. That’s Newt’s thing.
Gross Domestic Product came in at +2.8% but still disappointed, growing mostly due to re-stocking inventories than actual increased demand. So, we’re not exploding with growth quite yet. Although I for one am pleased to see the plus sign beside the number instead of a minus. Any growth is good.
Unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, but what really happened? True, we netted an increase of 243,000 jobs. However, 1.2 million other people aren't considered unemployed anymore. They have simply left the system. You see, if you quit looking for a job for long enough our statisticians figure you’re just done working forever. You have been “put out to pasture”. Given the popularity of X-box Kinect I am in no way surprised so many people have stopped worrying about work. Have you played that thing? You don’t even need real life anymore.
Obama continues to rally for a 5-10 billion dollar homeowner refinance package financed in part by a tax on large financial institutions. So banks: let me level with you. It would be SUPER if you would go ahead and refinance a bunch of performing paper from higher rates to obscenely lower rates because we freaking say so AND we’re going to tax you if you actually profit from it.
And be snappy about it. I got a re-election to win.
Now don’t get me wrong: from a ground-floor perspective I get it. I do. But I can see things through the eyes of the folks who actually are supposed to implement the plan. Doesn’t sound as thrilling to them. That being said, I still hope it goes through. Will do a lot of short-term good. I’ll keep you posted.
Congrats to the New York Giants for winning Super Bowl XLVI. Sure played some serious football out there.
FOOTBALL!!!
Quick side note: did anyone else notice that it looked like Madonna was actually singing until Nicki Minaj showed up? Then she suddenly started lip synching? Because Nicki Minaj can’t get by performing live? Then Madonna went right back to singing after Nicki was off-stage? I know you’ve got it recorded. Go watch it again. I’ll wait here.
OMG, doesn’t Nicki Minaj suck?!?
Facebook is going public. Almost feels weird to say, doesn’t it? Because it FEELS so public already? Evidently Facebook’s inability to cope with China’s inability to cope with open-content engines will stunt the IPO’s initial growth. However I imagine the social media giant will in short order be ridiculously well funded AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAND concurrently ridiculously outside-controlled to where it will become encumbered so badly with ads and stupid, commercial content that it will be re-placed by some MySpace 2.0 upstart because it “hasn’t sold out.” Yet.
Eat that, counter-culture. I know your game. Also my high school English teacher just blew his coronary over that run-on sentence I just pulled. And starting a sentence with a conjunction. Twice.
Romney decisively won the Florida Republican primary. He then neatly took Nevada. So, since Florida’s vote usually coincides with the primary winner (no factual data was used in making this statement so I’m basically making it up), I’m calling Romney as the Republican candidate. WOOOOO!!!!! ROMNEY 2012!!! Multiple wives for everyone!
Oh wait. That’s Newt’s thing.
Gross Domestic Product came in at +2.8% but still disappointed, growing mostly due to re-stocking inventories than actual increased demand. So, we’re not exploding with growth quite yet. Although I for one am pleased to see the plus sign beside the number instead of a minus. Any growth is good.
Unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, but what really happened? True, we netted an increase of 243,000 jobs. However, 1.2 million other people aren't considered unemployed anymore. They have simply left the system. You see, if you quit looking for a job for long enough our statisticians figure you’re just done working forever. You have been “put out to pasture”. Given the popularity of X-box Kinect I am in no way surprised so many people have stopped worrying about work. Have you played that thing? You don’t even need real life anymore.
Obama continues to rally for a 5-10 billion dollar homeowner refinance package financed in part by a tax on large financial institutions. So banks: let me level with you. It would be SUPER if you would go ahead and refinance a bunch of performing paper from higher rates to obscenely lower rates because we freaking say so AND we’re going to tax you if you actually profit from it.
And be snappy about it. I got a re-election to win.
Now don’t get me wrong: from a ground-floor perspective I get it. I do. But I can see things through the eyes of the folks who actually are supposed to implement the plan. Doesn’t sound as thrilling to them. That being said, I still hope it goes through. Will do a lot of short-term good. I’ll keep you posted.
Congrats to the New York Giants for winning Super Bowl XLVI. Sure played some serious football out there.
FOOTBALL!!!
Quick side note: did anyone else notice that it looked like Madonna was actually singing until Nicki Minaj showed up? Then she suddenly started lip synching? Because Nicki Minaj can’t get by performing live? Then Madonna went right back to singing after Nicki was off-stage? I know you’ve got it recorded. Go watch it again. I’ll wait here.
OMG, doesn’t Nicki Minaj suck?!?
Friday, January 27, 2012
State of the Union? Uh, hm...well, we are still legally a union. Does that count?
Spring-boarding off of Warren Buffett’s comment stating it is unfair that he pays a lower effective tax rate than his secretary, President Obama sent shockwaves out when he went after higher taxes on the wealthy in his State of the Union address. I’m sure he said other things too but damn, this thing got a lot of media attention. Reignites the class warfare issue so many people enjoy arguing about.
And as this newsletter goes out to a wide variety of people who have mixed views on the gargantituity (worth a shockingly lame 18 point on Words with Friends) of this subject, I just have to say that I totally agree with your views and those people on the other side of the issue just want to watch America go bankrupt through either not pulling in enough taxes or not making enough jobs. Take your pick.
He also alluded to a HARP 2.0 in the works that could save “many” borrowers “up to” $3000 per year. For those of your who don’t remember HARP 1.0 (aka Home Affordable Refinance Program), it was that refinance plan that came down from Capitol Hill that didn’t do nearly what it was supposed to do because the lenders had the opportunity to not get involved. Sooooooooooooo most of them didn’t get involved any more than they absolutely had to. Which isn’t much.
Stack on top of that the fact that the FHFA (regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) said that wide-spread principal reductions on underwater mortgages would require about $100 billion in fresh taxpayer funds. Effectively creates a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation.
Another noteworthy item from the world of real estate is the so-called “Phantom Tax” on forgiven debt in a short-sale. Through the end of this year, if you choose to short-sell a property that is underwater (and the lender truly forgives the difference in the debt) then there will be no taxable consequence. Starting in 2013, that difference can be considered income and will be taxed as such.
I tried for some time to think of a joke concerning all of this but frankly, it isn’t funny. Walking away from an underwater home sucks. The efforts by government to prop up housing have been languished in ongoing failure. However, given that most metrics on housing sales are beginning to curve ever-so-slowly upwards it DOES mean that the massively warped market we have experienced for the last 4 years is fading away in the face of legitimate non-taxpayer-bribe induced demand for housing. Pending home sales leapt upward in November. Existing home sales are approaching bull market territory. Mortgage rates remain so low that they make you want to slap yo’ momma. And that is a recipe for good old fashioned steady property appreciation which we will hopefully see showing up in home value metrics very shortly. In that regard, this sunset of the phantom tax law is not at all surprising.
Republican hopefuls have graced our state and expressed their angst for one another just days before our Republican primary by yelling at each other in a Tampa-based debate. In the spirit of Gasparilla, I think the situation would be much better handled by a “Who Can Sound the Most Piratey” contest.
Yeah. I care so little that I made a pirate joke. YARRRRRRR.
Europe continues to make us look like responsible debt-issuers by comparison. Greece. Might default. If it does things will be bad. If it doesn’t, perhaps cake?
And on a completely random and unrelated side-note, have you ever wanted to see your mortgage broker get picked up and slammed from shoulder height onto canvas? Dumb question. Everyone wants that. Well now’s your chance. I’m competing in a submission grappling match on February 4th at Apopka Fight Night. Think “wrestling meets judo meets jiu-jitsu.” The evening will include kickboxing, American boxing, mixed martial arts and submission grappling. All proceeds are going to charity. So you can cheer for all this violence and feel good inside about it. Apopka Elks Lodge, 201 West Orange Street, Apopka, FL 32703. Saturday Feb 4th starting at 6 pm. Be there or be choked out.
In the meantime, make sure you mention me to everyone you know who is buying a home or wanting to refinance. Or anybody, really. I’ll need to stay busy in order to cover the inevitable medical bills.
And as this newsletter goes out to a wide variety of people who have mixed views on the gargantituity (worth a shockingly lame 18 point on Words with Friends) of this subject, I just have to say that I totally agree with your views and those people on the other side of the issue just want to watch America go bankrupt through either not pulling in enough taxes or not making enough jobs. Take your pick.
He also alluded to a HARP 2.0 in the works that could save “many” borrowers “up to” $3000 per year. For those of your who don’t remember HARP 1.0 (aka Home Affordable Refinance Program), it was that refinance plan that came down from Capitol Hill that didn’t do nearly what it was supposed to do because the lenders had the opportunity to not get involved. Sooooooooooooo most of them didn’t get involved any more than they absolutely had to. Which isn’t much.
Stack on top of that the fact that the FHFA (regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) said that wide-spread principal reductions on underwater mortgages would require about $100 billion in fresh taxpayer funds. Effectively creates a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation.
Another noteworthy item from the world of real estate is the so-called “Phantom Tax” on forgiven debt in a short-sale. Through the end of this year, if you choose to short-sell a property that is underwater (and the lender truly forgives the difference in the debt) then there will be no taxable consequence. Starting in 2013, that difference can be considered income and will be taxed as such.
I tried for some time to think of a joke concerning all of this but frankly, it isn’t funny. Walking away from an underwater home sucks. The efforts by government to prop up housing have been languished in ongoing failure. However, given that most metrics on housing sales are beginning to curve ever-so-slowly upwards it DOES mean that the massively warped market we have experienced for the last 4 years is fading away in the face of legitimate non-taxpayer-bribe induced demand for housing. Pending home sales leapt upward in November. Existing home sales are approaching bull market territory. Mortgage rates remain so low that they make you want to slap yo’ momma. And that is a recipe for good old fashioned steady property appreciation which we will hopefully see showing up in home value metrics very shortly. In that regard, this sunset of the phantom tax law is not at all surprising.
Republican hopefuls have graced our state and expressed their angst for one another just days before our Republican primary by yelling at each other in a Tampa-based debate. In the spirit of Gasparilla, I think the situation would be much better handled by a “Who Can Sound the Most Piratey” contest.
Yeah. I care so little that I made a pirate joke. YARRRRRRR.
Europe continues to make us look like responsible debt-issuers by comparison. Greece. Might default. If it does things will be bad. If it doesn’t, perhaps cake?
And on a completely random and unrelated side-note, have you ever wanted to see your mortgage broker get picked up and slammed from shoulder height onto canvas? Dumb question. Everyone wants that. Well now’s your chance. I’m competing in a submission grappling match on February 4th at Apopka Fight Night. Think “wrestling meets judo meets jiu-jitsu.” The evening will include kickboxing, American boxing, mixed martial arts and submission grappling. All proceeds are going to charity. So you can cheer for all this violence and feel good inside about it. Apopka Elks Lodge, 201 West Orange Street, Apopka, FL 32703. Saturday Feb 4th starting at 6 pm. Be there or be choked out.
In the meantime, make sure you mention me to everyone you know who is buying a home or wanting to refinance. Or anybody, really. I’ll need to stay busy in order to cover the inevitable medical bills.
Monday, January 9, 2012
You mean early 2012 is just like late 2011?!? Only slightly later?!? I never would have guessed!!!
Well, here we are. 2012. Full of promise and opportunity. And a Mayan armageddon scenario. Mostly promise and opportunity.
So which Middle Eastern country are we fussing at this week? Let’s see, eeny meeny miney Iran. Our chums from across the globe are innocently enriching uranium in an underground facility designed to withstand air strikes for energy and research purposes. And since their track record of trustworthiness is so squeaky clean and they definitely have no intentions of wanting to “kill all the American bastard infidels,” I stand with my fellow hippie friends and applaud their shift to cleaner energy. Less dependence on fossil fuels. Bravo to a greener world.
If by greener I mean glowing with residual radioactive vapor everywhere.
In response we’ve banded with other major oil-consuming countries and created sanctions targeting the Iranian Central Banking system in order to screw with their ability to sell oil. Because if there’s one thing Americans are good at, it’s trashing central banking systems all around the world. We got a stinkin’ Ph.D. in the subject. If there was a game show and trashing banks was the contest, we’d win.
And the GOP presidential “race” rages on. There’s been polls and caucuses and debates and all sorts of nonsense. Mitt Romney seems to be Mr. Right Now, but Rick Santorum gained a little notoriety when he essentially tied Mitt in the Iowa caucus. So, good for him. (golf clap) Sadly no sex scandals to report at this time, but if recent history is any indication I’d say we’re due for some raunch in the right wing sometime soon.
Honestly, I think running Tim Tebow might be a good play right now for the nomination. He’d keep you guessing until the 4th quarter and then pull a storybook finish out of mid-air. And then he would pray. Republicans LOVE praying. Tebow/Christ in 2012.
Wanna hear something crazy? Jobs are getting created and housing data isn’t all that bad lately. I guess that was technically two crazy things.
8.5% unemployment. To use Paul Krugman’s exact words: It says something about how beaten down we are that this is considered “good” news. But an improvement is an improvement and by Jove I’ll take it. Sounds more impressive when you say 200,000 jobs were created. Real estate purchase contracts rose 7.4% month-over-month in late December. New Home Sales were up 19.5% year-over-year. Mind you, that’s capping off one of the worst years housing has seen by most metrics, but it is still a beginning to what will hopefully culminate into some maintainable trend.
Aside from that, things still feel pretty late-2011-y. Europe continues to maybe or maybe not want to implode. Mortgage rates are still being held down by a potent cocktail of economic concerns. Greg is still slap-happy to receive your referrals of people you know looking to buy a home or refinance a property they already own. I felt that warranted some emphasis from MS Publisher.
But seriously, I want to finance someone you know. Or you directly. Whatever. I’m actually quite good at it. Just send me a referral and I’ll show you.
So which Middle Eastern country are we fussing at this week? Let’s see, eeny meeny miney Iran. Our chums from across the globe are innocently enriching uranium in an underground facility designed to withstand air strikes for energy and research purposes. And since their track record of trustworthiness is so squeaky clean and they definitely have no intentions of wanting to “kill all the American bastard infidels,” I stand with my fellow hippie friends and applaud their shift to cleaner energy. Less dependence on fossil fuels. Bravo to a greener world.
If by greener I mean glowing with residual radioactive vapor everywhere.
In response we’ve banded with other major oil-consuming countries and created sanctions targeting the Iranian Central Banking system in order to screw with their ability to sell oil. Because if there’s one thing Americans are good at, it’s trashing central banking systems all around the world. We got a stinkin’ Ph.D. in the subject. If there was a game show and trashing banks was the contest, we’d win.
And the GOP presidential “race” rages on. There’s been polls and caucuses and debates and all sorts of nonsense. Mitt Romney seems to be Mr. Right Now, but Rick Santorum gained a little notoriety when he essentially tied Mitt in the Iowa caucus. So, good for him. (golf clap) Sadly no sex scandals to report at this time, but if recent history is any indication I’d say we’re due for some raunch in the right wing sometime soon.
Honestly, I think running Tim Tebow might be a good play right now for the nomination. He’d keep you guessing until the 4th quarter and then pull a storybook finish out of mid-air. And then he would pray. Republicans LOVE praying. Tebow/Christ in 2012.
Wanna hear something crazy? Jobs are getting created and housing data isn’t all that bad lately. I guess that was technically two crazy things.
8.5% unemployment. To use Paul Krugman’s exact words: It says something about how beaten down we are that this is considered “good” news. But an improvement is an improvement and by Jove I’ll take it. Sounds more impressive when you say 200,000 jobs were created. Real estate purchase contracts rose 7.4% month-over-month in late December. New Home Sales were up 19.5% year-over-year. Mind you, that’s capping off one of the worst years housing has seen by most metrics, but it is still a beginning to what will hopefully culminate into some maintainable trend.
Aside from that, things still feel pretty late-2011-y. Europe continues to maybe or maybe not want to implode. Mortgage rates are still being held down by a potent cocktail of economic concerns. Greg is still slap-happy to receive your referrals of people you know looking to buy a home or refinance a property they already own. I felt that warranted some emphasis from MS Publisher.
But seriously, I want to finance someone you know. Or you directly. Whatever. I’m actually quite good at it. Just send me a referral and I’ll show you.
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