Come hither kitten: Let us pontificate our current state of being.
EVERYTHING IS AWESOME! American gross domestic product (a.k.a. the economy) was upwardly revised to show growth of 2.7% annualized in the third quarter. Initial jobless claims dropped by 23,000 last week. Existing home sales jumped in October to a 4.79 million annualized rate. The Case-Schiller home price index showed national home prices increased 3.6% year over year and 2.2% quarter over quarter. Trulia’s housing market barometer hit a new post-crisis high in September. BUST OUT THE CHAMPAGNE! VICTORY ORGIES IN THE STREETS!
EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE! New home sales fell 0.3%. The mighty phantom tax (which allows any forgiven debt from a short sale to be taxed as income) is going to rear it’s ugly head once more in 2013. Everyone’s freaking out about a new wave of Euro-zone defaults at are quite possibly approaching soon. Paris Hilton teamed up with Little Wayne to produce a song. I’m fairly certain that is one of the horsemen of the apocalypse right there. TO THE BOMB SHELTERS! SHOOT ANYTHING THAT MOVES!
The screwy part is that everything there is true. As we Americans bask in the sordid aftermath of our most societally polarizing of political rituals (fancy way of saying election) there is plenty of data to support either side of the “Are home prices finally coming back???” debate.
Listen. I don’t give even half a crap about how pleased you are or aren’t about this election. I am a believer that regardless of who took the oval office it would have very VERY little to do with the open market forces that are driving our current housing market, at least in the short term.
Knowing my highly opinionated audience, I imagine I just kung-fu kicked a hornet’s nest. But the point remains. The pendulum SEEMS to be swinging back to a more balanced, healthy market. Things got way too loose, the economy went to hell, then things got way too tight. Hopefully we’re feeling out a healthy medium here. Lord only knows there’s a ton of government intervention and artificial forces that will need to be dealt with sooner or later, but the immediate future seems (in my opinion) promising. At least not as bleak as recent history would suggest.
I ripped a quote from CNBC because, well, I’ve been saying the same stuff all along. But now a credible news network said it. So here is a corporate entity parroting my thoughts:
Home buyers need to be more focused on the mortgage process in the current environment where lenders and banking regulators are being risk averse. Shopping for competitive mortgage terms is a good idea, but it may be more important to find a bank that is willing to work with you given your credit history.
Translation: Banks are dicks right now and I’m a scrappy broker who doesn’t quit hammering until stuff gets done. I also get my clients awesome deals. Boo-yah. I got chuckin’ testimonials, Farley.
But enough about how great I am and how you should definitely tell anyone who owns a home or wants to buy one that you know about me…
This whole fiscal cliff issue remains unresolved. For those of you who haven’t read my previous references to this phenomenon (and shame on you for not reading and memorizing everything I write), the fiscal cliff is a series of tax cuts and program spending allocations that are set to sunset when the ball drops in Times Square. Basically, if we hit 2013 and nothing is done about it, gravity will be doubled for everyone.
That’s not exactly what’s going to happen, but I think it’s a pretty neat metaphor and I’m going with it. Things are going to be suddenly slowed down is what I’m stabbing at. And that would be no bueno.
So, despite the fact that compromise seems to be the only path away from ruin, both political parties seem quite content with their respective uncompromising terms of engagement. It’s refreshing to know that so much of our tax money goes to pay a bunch of old guys to represent our differences virulently and effectively accomplish nothing.
In related news, I’m asking for a toaster and a bathtub for Christmas.
But we all know how this story will end: Lots of re-election-friendly voter-base-appealing banter and then a buzzer beater solution that doesn’t necessarily solve, but effectively staves off the harsh consequences of the cliff. And a great big smile as they wish us all a Happy New Year.
Just WATCH it happen. So delightfully predictable.
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